Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xccc42b73611b7015fa03fb3483e8123155e860fba314a83f51e704759984aa06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 70c | 571.38$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.85 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 357.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 73c | 212.55$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 46c | 175.09$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.25 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 162.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed Yes | 26c | 144.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed No | 58c | 128.59$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 21c | 121.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 26c | 116.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 71c | 113.33$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 85.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked No | 62c | 77.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…3cb7backed No | 74c | 71.65$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 64c | 67.78$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 25c | 66.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked No | 78c | 63.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 72c | 61.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 49c | 57.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 36c | 57.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 36c | 49.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Yes | 41c | 49.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 33c | 49.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 27c | 45.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 34c | 44.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5c…a240backed No | 75c | 44.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 195 | 52.8%103 W · 92 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 48c | 39.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 51c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 50c | 34.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 37c | 33.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 49c | 29.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed No | 72c | 28.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5057…376fbacked No | 60c | 27.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 72c | 26.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 23.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 52c | 22.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 50c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…a744backed No | 66c | 20.72$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.