Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcbb020ebc9351c80b5ecff6b996d84dd46b167ce6a7df59e1dff035466057df7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 59c | 298.97$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.39 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 18c | 227.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 21c | 191.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 41c | 174.09$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 59c | 161.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 161.54$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 69c | 140.02$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 41c | 114.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.71 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 36c | 105.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 38c | 96.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.2 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 40c | 95.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 94.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 88.74$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 39c | 87.07$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 86.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.72 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 62c | 78.86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 40c | 71.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 70.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 70.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.95 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 63c | 68.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 67.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 67.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.16 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 73c | 66.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 63c | 64.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 46c | 59.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 53.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 49.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…a744backed No | 70c | 46.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 65c | 45.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 28c | 44.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 37c | 44.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 40.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 27c | 39.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55cf…e4eabacked Yes | 36c | 38.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc10f…7972backed Yes | 75c | 38.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 59cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 63c | 38.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 48c | 37.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d35…6a1fbacked Yes | 40c | 37.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 36.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 65c | 35.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 30.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142a…a44abacked No | 40c | 29.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 179 | 45.3%81 W · 98 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 68c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 48c | 28.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 55c | 27.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccf…2381backed Yes | 73c | 26.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 26.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76d…636bbacked Yes | 74c | 24.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed Yes | 77c | 24.68$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…845fbacked No | 74c | 23.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 22.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 75c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa542…3f6cbacked No | 62c | 20.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 70c | 19.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 59c | 18.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked No | 67c | 17.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b8…4493backed No | 63c | 16.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 71c | 14.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on April 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.