Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88f659cdb6b21bad82c72404e4f9270be70d4499e13cb87877dbcd81c970203c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 270.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 248.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 223.01$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.47 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 203$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 53c | 188.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 167$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 44c | 151.81$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 70c | 148.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…8dddbacked No | 77c | 130.84$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 57c | 130.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 119.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.03 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb791…ee9ebacked Yes | 11c | 105.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd3…5b9abacked Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…5c9fbacked Yes | 15c | 103.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 55c | 94.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 86.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 50c | 81.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.46 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 23c | 80.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed Yes | 31c | 78.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 24c | 74.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 70.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 46c | 67.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 65.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed No | 36c | 65.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.67 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 64.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 64c | 62.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 43c | 54.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 56c | 52.41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea4a…39c8backed Yes | 47c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 223 | 35.9%80 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 46.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 44c | 44.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 70c | 44.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 41.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 59c | 39.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 52c | 39.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.96 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 48c | 37.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 57c | 36.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 44c | 36.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 50c | 35.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 35.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 43c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 47c | 31.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 55c | 31.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 61c | 30.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…0c71backed No | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 51c | 29.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc6…5e06backed Yes | 47c | 29.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed Yes | 46c | 29.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 52c | 28.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2e…e75ebacked Yes | 73c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 60c | 21.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 20.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27c5…0d4cbacked No | 51c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 56c | 19.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 60c | 19.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 53c | 19.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.