Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36652bf6739f47a3aa8f5aecddba0fb529613d503f737d9c28c649976a436dfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 316.36$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 78c | 300$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 270.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 41c | 208.16$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 19c | 200.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 8c | 170.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.49 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 45c | 152.39$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.34 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 19c | 120.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258b…db84backed Yes | 44c | 119.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.35 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 58c | 118.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.58 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 117$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 34c | 110.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 71c | 109.17$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa276…3584backed Yes | 24c | 97.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15d0…1284backed No | 63c | 90.04$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.62 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 89.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4c…5ff7backed Yes | 19c | 78.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 51c | 78.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 18c | 73.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 58c | 69.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 28c | 67.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd36b…5942backed Yes | 53c | 65.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 19c | 54.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 71c | 51.72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 59c | 43.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 50c | 42.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 49c | 40.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 80c | 39.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 37.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 51c | 35.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 30.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 64c | 28.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed No | 70c | 26.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.22per pick | 54cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 62c | 23.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 63c | 22.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 78c | 22.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 79c | 20.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 59c | 18.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 79c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.