Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88c72774401876ee0a9bad68a2c881add77c263a2addecb0714903b79a8970ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,928
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 1c | 801.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 231$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 56c | 206.11$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.06 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 44c | 198.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 51c | 138.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.51 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 57c | 135.27$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.66 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…f6cebacked No | 57c | 130.43$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.39 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 124.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 54c | 121.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 47c | 103.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 92.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 46c | 87.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.83 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 87.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 52c | 77.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 58c | 68.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 72c | 63.54$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 58c | 61.79$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 44c | 56.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 47c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 58c | 51.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 55c | 49.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked No | 60c | 46.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 55c | 44.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 43.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…14ebbacked Yes | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 40c | 38.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 48c | 37.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 34.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 40c | 34.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c5…8dddbacked No | 53c | 33.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 47c | 31.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 63c | 31.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 48c | 31.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 39c | 30.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 30.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 48c | 29.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 29.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 48c | 28.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 45c | 25.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 58c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…0de1backed Yes | 54c | 24.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 69c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 51c | 23.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…24efbacked Yes | 64c | 23.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -59%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed No | 50c | 20.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 20.43$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 75c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.56 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.