Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec1c2400b3c2cb593d7b1471ef717a96d0c0bb00ca9703589c0948b9739a0f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b84…6e9bbacked Yes | 5c | 9,486$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 71c | 2,492$1,767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,767.46 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x432b…9be6backed Yes | 3c | 1,026$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0333…7d70backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 51c | 998.6$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.54 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 46c | 862.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 732.1$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.73 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 40c | 548.69$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.11 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 483.91$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 471.13$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.03 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 43c | 455.78$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.52 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 415.38$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.95 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 33c | 362.2$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 46c | 313.34$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 48c | 295$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 37c | 293$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.59 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 75c | 291.88$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.34 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 69c | 289.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.37 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 276.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 38c | 251.97$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.22 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 18c | 243.58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 54c | 240$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x722e…faddbacked No | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 48c | 237.12$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.61 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 36c | 232.01$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.53 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 227.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.4 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 221.18$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.22 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 33c | 215.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.7 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 41c | 206.49$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 203$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 31c | 198.61$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 44c | 198.58$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 47c | 197.37$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 35c | 189.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.86 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 19c | 188.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.32 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 22c | 184.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 51c | 179.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.35 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 53c | 178$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 175$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 43c | 173.6$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.16 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 48c | 159.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.94 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 41c | 155.61$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.96 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 26c | 150$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 39c | 148.57$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 74c | 144.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 141.74$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 69c | 126.46$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 124.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 68c | 117.43$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 257 | 84.4%217 W · 40 L | +30.3wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 47c | 115.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 71c | 111.55$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 110$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 45c | 108.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 52c | 105.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 103.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 44c | 103.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed No | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 54c | 99.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 37c | 97.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 41c | 96.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.18 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 91.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.26 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 13c | 85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 42c | 84.4$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03c…9a81backed Yes | 44c | 83.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 64c | 82.6$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 40c | 82.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 70c | 80$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 299 | 27.8%83 W · 216 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 74c | 78.82$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.46 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 26c | 78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 33c | 75.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 72c | 75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 47c | 74.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 281 | 63.7%179 W · 102 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 49c | 72.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 53c | 71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 55c | 70.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebcd…d2efbacked Yes | 71c | 69.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 37c | 69.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 69.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 68.87$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 59c | 68.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 67.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 67.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…4ca6backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 39c | 63.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 60.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 66c | 60.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.