Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefff251c303cdeb048696db17de063e10586635ec1b5175cff246e98cf158a7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 33c | 2,112$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,412.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 45c | 1,544$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.07 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 47c | 888.34$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.35 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 20c | 697.08$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.22 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 674.48$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 68c | 635.51$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.98 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 59c | 626.34$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.53 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 534.06$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.79 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 496.33$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.28 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 56c | 427.06$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.65 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 59c | 348.89$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.13 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 67c | 328.74$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.29 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 51c | 316.17$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.86 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 24c | 297.42$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.49 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 51c | 281.42$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 72c | 279.67$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.01 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 51c | 267.21$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 38c | 252.3$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 73c | 246$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 32c | 218$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.74 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 36c | 208.55$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.99 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e1…c79cbacked Yes | 29c | 207.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.98 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +9.6wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 60c | 204.53$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.7 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 199.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 50c | 197.86$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 64c | 197.42$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 40c | 194$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 189$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.12 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 79c | 188.42$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 182.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 172.67$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 55c | 161.7$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.38 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed Yes | 65c | 155.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 40c | 154$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 11c | 151.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.81 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 57c | 148.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 140$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 61c | 139.6$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 48c | 130.62$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 29c | 128.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.41 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed No | 60c | 126.79$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 54c | 118$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 59 | 67.8%40 W · 19 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 43c | 117.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 65c | 115.79$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 77c | 107.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.61 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 106.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 61c | 105.69$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 61c | 103.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 68c | 101.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf7…a1abbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc91e…07ddbacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…82f5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 35c | 99.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 64c | 98.88$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 43c | 94.04$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 97 | 83.5%81 W · 16 L | +26.5wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 93.15$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac22…363ebacked Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 142 | 43.7%62 W · 80 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 56c | 88.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 57c | 84.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 79.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 76.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 52c | 73.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…f47cbacked Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 66.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 45c | 62.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 40c | 60.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 59c | 58.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked Yes | 56c | 57.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e9…1f83backed Yes | 55c | 56.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 59c | 50.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 181 | 31.5%57 W · 124 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 41c | 48.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 54c | 48.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 45c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…9d00backed Yes | 30c | 46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.29 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 24c | 42.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 57c | 42.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 79c | 41.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee2b…a97abacked Yes | 54c | 40.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.33per pick | 52cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 60c | 40.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 57c | 40.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed Yes | 56c | 39.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…cf8ebacked Yes | 52c | 38.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked Yes | 50c | 37.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 35c | 36.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 60c | 33.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 41c | 32.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.