Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85bbeb14f3ea151df61c16f4f5fe8bdcba68524df3d7a538f65da0096430dc79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 399.85$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.05 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 384.77$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 73c | 362.59$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 27c | 308.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.73 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 193$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 16c | 188.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 150.92$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 79c | 137.97$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd356…d72fbacked Yes | 12c | 130.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6536…0cf6backed Yes | 9c | 125$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 80c | 106.81$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 19c | 100.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 78c | 80.54$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed No | 77c | 65.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 28c | 58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a2…0f9dbacked Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 54.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa63f…fe9cbacked Yes | 22c | 46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb8…77ecbacked No | 78c | 46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…7d23backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc600…a575backed Yes | 28c | 40.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c76…91a0backed No | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…8584backed No | 72c | 36.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 78c | 18.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad65…b49ebacked No | 80c | 14.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 77 | 71.4%55 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 49°F or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.