Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa164c2de8bb031beefda0f296af93dda3cbbf0dad0a113560fda9fce04a4ab08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 493.53$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 398.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 219.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 25c | 161$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 144.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.44 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 21c | 133.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 133$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 125.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 113.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 24c | 103.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 100.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 88.91$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 79.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 35c | 73.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 21c | 70.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 31c | 69.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 60c | 60.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 77c | 59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 34c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 59c | 43.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 51c | 37.79$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 77c | 32.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d9…07e7backed Yes | 71c | 29.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 67c | 26.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 26.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 52c | 23.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5196…403ebacked Yes | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…642fbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x366c…71bdbacked No | 75c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 49°F or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.