Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x061cbf13fd50fdc1ac1eebbeafd76aa508441a62cf40dac502b195cbaf0ca536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Yes | 24c | 615.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.17 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 398.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 358.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 273.59$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 271.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 149.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 74c | 140$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 137.37$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…1d02backed No | 71c | 117.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 123 | 63.4%78 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 115.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 110.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 68c | 93.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 92.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Yes | 56c | 90.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 34c | 87.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 38c | 86.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 45c | 79.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 71c | 79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 66c | 76.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 68c | 74.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5599…4a71backed Yes | 34c | 73.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 71.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 70.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 43c | 56.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 55.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 51.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…972cbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8395…377cbacked No | 61c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 59c | 49.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 33c | 48.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 46c | 46.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 47c | 44.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 40.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1885…521bbacked Yes | 34c | 35.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 57c | 32.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 69c | 32.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…bec8backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 40c | 30.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…68bebacked Yes | 38c | 30.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 70c | 29.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 69c | 29.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3878…2e5ebacked No | 79c | 29.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 79c | 28.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 46c | 27.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 27.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 62c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 61c | 26.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…a134backed No | 72c | 24.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 73c | 22.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 54c | 22.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885b…4b09backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 49°F or below on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.