Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x575e7965390536dfaa66760ecf6e15d9b92b05dd8556d941f6c3535c9ae44712
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 48c | 1,647$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.76 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 31c | 1,114$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.59 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 42c | 1,085$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.38 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 26c | 712.01$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.5 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed Yes | 58c | 614.49$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.13 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 51c | 493.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 370.74$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.15 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 314.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.77 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…c55abacked No | 42c | 295.71$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 289.72$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 41c | 248.52$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 63c | 247$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.61 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 241.93$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.15 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 218.7$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed No | 33c | 212.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.2 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 42c | 202.07$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.9 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 50c | 174.83$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a5…abfdbacked Yes | 68c | 174.41$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 24c | 165.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 51c | 152.4$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.94 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…20bbbacked Yes | 66c | 150.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 146.77$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 131.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 10c | 129.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 127$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 34c | 116.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 70c | 105$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 102.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.17 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 48c | 100.48$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…52cbbacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 58c | 94.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 62c | 92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 16c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 88$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 42c | 87$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 30c | 86.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…9157backed Yes | 36c | 82.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 245 | 31%76 W · 169 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 79.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 22c | 67.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 62c | 64.44$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 29c | 61.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.28 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 59.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 58.67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 27c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.54 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 54.4$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 35c | 54.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 67c | 54.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.31 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…951fbacked Yes | 36c | 51.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 38c | 51.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 26c | 49.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 49.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 27c | 48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 51c | 47.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1b4fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 45c | 44.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 62c | 40.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1ee8backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 38.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eaf…1f76backed Yes | 60c | 33.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 67c | 31.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…6108backed Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…75aebacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 53c | 29.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 47c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 47c | 27.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 47c | 27.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 64c | 27.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 61c | 26.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9168…01d6backed Yes | 58c | 24.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed Yes | 61c | 24.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4a…efa3backed Yes | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 57c | 22.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 52c | 21.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e0…1d15backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf1…7cb7backed No | 75c | 19.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 91 | 69.2%63 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe010…5147backed Yes | 58c | 18.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -17.1wins | -0.29per pick | 59cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 27-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa1…2f62backed No | 60c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 68 | 70.6%48 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 16.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…29b2backed No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.