Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9780ea738fdbc5250e5a4cd3283b6507ba1a719a1d9473582d498b729d0b0326
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,155$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.02 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 44c | 1,776$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.55 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 1,700$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.07 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 54c | 1,676$902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.98 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,592$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.99 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 1,014$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.45 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 51c | 997.58$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.55 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 2c | 667.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 416.79$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.63 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 38c | 373.48$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 13c | 296.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 29c | 263.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 236.23$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 40c | 215.62$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 52c | 215.38$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.71 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 213.26$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 58c | 202.86$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 178.07$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 65c | 169.48$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.62 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…bc1cbacked Yes | 30c | 168.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 166.7$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 69c | 166.12$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.16 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 17c | 155$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 55c | 149$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 41c | 146$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.62 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 47c | 145.96$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 135.48$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 52c | 123.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 55c | 123$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.35 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2334…cd00backed No | 69c | 121.39$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 119.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 55c | 118$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 39c | 116.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 47c | 115.75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 115$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.09 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 110$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.46 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 107.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 105.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 68c | 103.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfac…a4febacked No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 41c | 96.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 30c | 93.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…195bbacked No | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 62c | 83.16$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 71c | 81.69$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 79.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 71c | 77.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 76.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 45c | 72.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02e9…9a18backed No | 56c | 69.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 43c | 65.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 57c | 55.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd789…9be7backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf35…3574backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 45c | 48.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 48.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 47.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 44.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 44.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed Yes | 46c | 42.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 71c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked No | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b5d…38eabacked Yes | 52c | 38.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…1a2abacked Yes | 39c | 33.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 63c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 30.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 52c | 29.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 40c | 28.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 73c | 27.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8095…b843backed No | 60c | 26.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc1…90cfbacked Yes | 54c | 26.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -22%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 68c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed Yes | 54c | 25.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 23.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.