Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3659f0640d5cf102e53141f6abca1182bbd704b112e97888ffa53e526ad4e7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,669
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked No | 74c | 3,000$2,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.77 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…3edebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 13c | 1,884$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.17 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 788.51$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.01 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 696.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 492.62$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.31 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 24c | 336.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 8c | 315$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…fcdbbacked Yes | 70c | 181.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 14c | 179.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 158.03$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 38c | 147.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 69c | 110$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Yes | 57c | 104.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 101.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.17 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 28c | 90.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88e5…efbbbacked Yes | 79c | 38.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 52c | 37.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 31c | 35.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 58c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…b377backed Yes | 57c | 20.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 73°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on July 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.