World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe999ab1388cda24399ff08a10d50a80f53f21235c136bbfcff9856d404de49fa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 1c | 2,990$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 45c | 860.32$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 57c | 795.12$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 44c | 784.82$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.35 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 500.78$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.48 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 483.58$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.29 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 466.43$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.67 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 431.71$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.32 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 378.8$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.8 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 49c | 301$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.76 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked No | 55c | 298.21$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 41c | 286.33$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 270.27$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.22 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 57c | 261.17$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.83 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 40c | 250.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.03 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 18c | 224.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 51c | 213.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.4 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 42c | 213.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.97 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 208.51$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.01 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 200$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 55c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.8 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 49c | 191.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 61c | 181.55$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.9 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 51c | 177.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 176.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.23 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 173.58$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 42c | 150$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 44c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.31 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 60c | 149.39$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.21 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed No | 55c | 143.85$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…116fbacked Yes | 56c | 143.43$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 50c | 143.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 28c | 140.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 54c | 137$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 59c | 134.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 132.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 39c | 124.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 55c | 124.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.45 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 122.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 51c | 119.97$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.94 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 61c | 112.91$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 48c | 110.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 109.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.89 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 42c | 109.35$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 47c | 106.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…c186backed Yes | 51c | 105.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 37c | 104.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 65c | 103$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.54 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb139…29a1backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…abfbbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 46c | 96.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.79 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b96…4268backed No | 55c | 96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed Yes | 31c | 95.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 51c | 94.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe775…01d2backed Yes | 49c | 91.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 46c | 89.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 64c | 87.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 87.52$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 84.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 44c | 82.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 43c | 81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 78.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 28c | 74.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 67c | 73.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 34c | 73.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 50c | 72.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 46c | 72.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 68c | 71.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 71.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 71.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 65c | 68$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 62c | 67.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 27c | 67.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 63c | 66.48$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 55c | 65.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 21c | 64.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 53c | 64.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.21 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 65c | 62.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed No | 55c | 62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 67c | 61.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 40c | 60.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 50c | 59.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 72c | 58.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.59 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2809…1652backed No | 67c | 56.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 53cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbe…e435backed Yes | 39c | 51.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7071…91dfbacked Yes | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 59c | 49.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 48.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.