World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b95e55f55b3b729afdc4a749654f670e4ebadf0b7520e928b78e578f02854b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,652
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,652 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 1,783$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.68 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 1,083$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,058.96 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 991.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.05 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…05a6backed No | 32c | 936.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.84 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 31c | 700.18$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89b…1a22backed Yes | 58c | 620.6$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.6 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +6.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 68c | 514.71$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.71 | 15 | 100%15 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 5c | 470.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 7c | 384.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.46 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 335.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.91 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 305.62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 31c | 288.72$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.06 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 272.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.93 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 234.2$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 74c | 224.49$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.98 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…8ffbbacked Yes | 14c | 209.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed Yes | 5c | 204.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 196.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 6c | 192.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.93 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 167.74$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 11c | 163.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.66 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 30c | 160.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.88 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 66c | 152.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 80c | 120$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.62 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 105.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.98 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 36c | 99.98$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 33c | 96.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 16c | 95.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.56 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 92.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 72c | 83.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 74.96$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 72c | 70.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked Yes | 27c | 61.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 48cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 53c | 49.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 49.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 27c | 46.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 42c | 45.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6671…e109backed No | 65c | 44.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 73c | 41.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…3dccbacked Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…4c39backed Yes | 68c | 39.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 72c | 38.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd987…20b6backed Yes | 29c | 37.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddcc…d167backed Yes | 34c | 34.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 67c | 32.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 35c | 28.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 57c | 26.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 24.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 80c | 24.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 62c | 21.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 55c | 19.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be5…bc8bbacked Yes | 76c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 15.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.