World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0abd8b6d9d018c6416e2baa7d55e1817f6260784e4c1dc94ea6203ef49f4548c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,302
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,302 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 3,994$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 2,264$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.08 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 2,200$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.17 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 77c | 1,908$1,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.43 | 15 | 100%15 W · 0 L | +4.8wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 36c | 1,621$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.21 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7c…2d79backed Yes | 56c | 1,127$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,082$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 985.84$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.58 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 16c | 954.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.47 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 939.08$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.4 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 50c | 691.06$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.37 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 524.94$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.09 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 32c | 469.76$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 462.34$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.56 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 19c | 447.3$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 93 | 37.6%35 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 431.7$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 11c | 428.66$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5130…818bbacked Yes | 3c | 415.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 78c | 388.5$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 383.02$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 38c | 357$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 308.23$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.33 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 32c | 275$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 65c | 261.38$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.01 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 63c | 211.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 78c | 211.2$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.52 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 75c | 205$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 15c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 48c | 199.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 33c | 196.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 66c | 176.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 173.58$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 74c | 169.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 169$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.2 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 64c | 161$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 68c | 159.99$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 44c | 157.73$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 30c | 157.38$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 154$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 137.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.61 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 64c | 137$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 23c | 134.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 38c | 131.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 46c | 130.17$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 130.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 130$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.29 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 127.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 125.11$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.04 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 64c | 120$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f5…f4f5backed No | 80c | 115.28$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 13c | 111.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed No | 28c | 110.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 29c | 110.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 22c | 103.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 28c | 102.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 34c | 102.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 27c | 101.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 24c | 100.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 100.23$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…36cdbacked Yes | 21c | 91.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 13c | 90.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8e…5b53backed No | 61c | 82.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 62c | 81.83$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.16 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 78.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6c…116fbacked Yes | 64c | 73.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…86b4backed Yes | 41c | 72.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 24c | 66.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 61c | 64.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e5…d09cbacked No | 75c | 62.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +247.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 79c | 58.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 33c | 58.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 62c | 56.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…878ebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 72c | 52.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 48c | 52.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad1…7cf9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 49$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 47.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 22c | 47.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 46.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 69c | 45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 69c | 43.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 26c | 42.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed No | 74c | 40.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.