World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x833e14e1c1466ad85368c8dc52e0ea1bc20caa07bfde036a8951db88d1e52637
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,330
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,944
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,330 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,310$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…eba1backed Yes | 1c | 799.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 31c | 770.89$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.71 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 2c | 643.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 383.15$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 26c | 301.09$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 70c | 296.96$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 33c | 245.74$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.09 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -33%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 197.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 37c | 146$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.02 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 32c | 145.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 180 | 35.6%64 W · 116 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 107.5$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 19c | 103.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 71c | 85.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 49 | 79.6%39 W · 10 L | +7.3wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…9b38backed Yes | 31c | 53.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 26c | 46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.36per pick | 46cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 18.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 87 | 75.9%66 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.