World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93ad3b3e4fb98f8a277fedbfee0078558a6489eb079452dcc0d66e5b573c66f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 15c | 1,621$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.48 | 237 | 23.2%55 W · 182 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 33c | 808.41$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd29d…f43cbacked Yes | 26c | 778.7$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 13c | 674.95$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.84 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 8c | 508.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…73e0backed Yes | 4c | 466.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 11c | 353.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 334.15$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.71 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 77c | 302.56$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 302.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 71c | 226.35$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.15 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 79c | 192.18$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec1…e2e3backed Yes | 17c | 186.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 173.58$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b2…615dbacked Yes | 16c | 152.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 151$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.28 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 8c | 148.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 150 | 36.7%55 W · 95 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 77c | 144.11$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 11c | 138.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 15c | 136.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 77c | 130.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 129.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2d…0ef3backed Yes | 9c | 125.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…edf6backed Yes | 19c | 103.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 96.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 60c | 95.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 61c | 92.02$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 19c | 89.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 40c | 86.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 79c | 77.76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 22c | 77.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 27c | 74.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed No | 78c | 63.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 60.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 24c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 28c | 52.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 47c | 50.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 38 | 84.2%32 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…f62cbacked Yes | 25c | 42.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c16…d262backed No | 75c | 33.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 65cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 74c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 60c | 25.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 43c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 64c | 23.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 19.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f7…c14bbacked No | 72c | 16.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +159.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 79c | 14.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 13.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C or below on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.