Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x123d577f614222eaba0f5f02f9316203499055b645896acc81ae40b83f9c3b6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,431
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 75c | 292.75$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked No | 75c | 249.56$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.89 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 75c | 233.97$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 228.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 32c | 202.59$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 202.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 10c | 199.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 185.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 181.43$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 14c | 171.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 28c | 156.89$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ce…2ea5backed Yes | 27c | 156.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 156.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.34 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 27c | 141.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 124.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 751 | 38.2%287 W · 464 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 79c | 104.17$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 366 | 52.5%192 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92eb…9668backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 109 | 36.7%40 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 73c | 98.62$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 26c | 93.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed No | 76c | 90.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 17c | 89.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 484 | 36.6%177 W · 307 L | -24.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 20c | 87.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 77.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…5271backed Yes | 28c | 73.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked No | 78c | 72.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…a654backed Yes | 23c | 64.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed Yes | 21c | 64.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 62.06$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…ca0abacked No | 73c | 61.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 57.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed No | 74c | 52.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 75c | 52.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 49.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 36c | 47.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 482 | 45.9%221 W · 261 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 64c | 45.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 65c | 44.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 41.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 27c | 38.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 256 | 39.8%102 W · 154 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05a…919abacked Yes | 36c | 36.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 35.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 65c | 35.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…dfb2backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 31.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce4f…f14ebacked Yes | 34c | 30.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked No | 77c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 78c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 72c | 22.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 75c | 19.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…98e2backed No | 71c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…dee8backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.