NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf66a06444ca8183494c81c5f1c242710a8f031e0d0b74a41d826cccc4a910ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x418d…88a3backed Thunder | 53c | 6,551$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Lakers | 48c | 4,372$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,273.45 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Lakers | 43c | 1,740$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.78 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Thunder | 52c | 577.02$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Lakers | 52c | 568.91$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.08 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Lakers | 48c | 409.42$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.9 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…365abacked Lakers | 53c | 329.7$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.96 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…edcfbacked Thunder | 51c | 291.74$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Thunder | 52c | 285.18$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Thunder | 48c | 284.87$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.73 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Lakers | 48c | 256.08$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.16 | 568 | 43.8%249 W · 319 L | -25.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Lakers | 53c | 216.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.38 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Thunder | 48c | 209.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Lakers | 49c | 199.99$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…5abfbacked Lakers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Thunder | 45c | 182$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.9 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Lakers | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Thunder | 48c | 145.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.12 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked Lakers | 53c | 105.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Lakers | 52c | 101.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 427 | 40.3%172 W · 255 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Thunder | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Thunder | 47c | 78.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f18…d6cabacked Lakers | 53c | 46.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.89 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Thunder | 48c | 31.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…0675backed Thunder | 48c | 30.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Thunder | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Lakers | 43c | 28.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7fce…6476backed Lakers | 52c | 24.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.