TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,661
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$12,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,661 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under47c11,017$5,178 inLost-$5,178.214538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over53c4,000$2,120 inWon+$1,8802,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed Over53c3,774$2,000 inWon+$1,773.588848.9%43 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Over53c1,415$750 inWon+$665.0918241.2%75 W · 107 L-17.6wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-20.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Over53c1,008$534 inWon+$473.798354.2%45 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over52c753.22$391 inWon+$362.332,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under47c549.15$258 inLost-$258.11,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff4c…25a4backed Over57c224.26$128 inWon+$96.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe062…4907backed Over53c210$111 inWon+$98.77451.4%38 W · 36 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Over53c155.1$82 inWon+$72.926755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6892…7805backed Under49c100.29$50 inLost-$49.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Over53c94.34$50 inWon+$44.3414844.6%66 W · 82 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Over53c77.18$41 inWon+$36.2740546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x263f…760dbacked Over53c75.47$40 inWon+$35.471560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+34.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Under47c53$25 inLost-$24.9162049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Under53c46.65$25 inLost-$24.5321056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Over47c46.65$22 inWon+$24.5313047.7%62 W · 68 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc376…a8e7backed Over52c45.82$24 inWon+$21.8231748.9%155 W · 162 L-12.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Over53c43.87$23 inWon+$20.6255444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4ee…e425backed Over52c36.54$19 inWon+$17.5418150.3%91 W · 90 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over51c30$15 inWon+$14.733556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Under45c27.27$12 inLost-$12.2735049.4%173 W · 177 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over54c24$13 inWon+$11.162047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over64c16.06$10 inWon+$5.793,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.