NBA · resolved market
Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47c6ba4eecad3526cd4b45cab441616f1f0f5d2b69a7b23cad233fdadbcdec8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,073
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,503
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,073 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed No | 46c | 303.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 218 | 43.6%95 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…6952backed Yes | 58c | 224.84$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 337 | 49.3%166 W · 171 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 58c | 189.25$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…a1e1backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.7wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +51%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 59c | 169.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 42c | 156.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.71 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 43c | 141.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1f…4a6bbacked No | 43c | 136.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Yes | 51c | 103.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 256 | 57%146 W · 110 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked No | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes | 50c | 95.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.67 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1495…d3f9backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 42c | 72.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…77abbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 126 | 42.9%54 W · 72 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 41c | 42.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 40c | 42.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6b…256fbacked Yes | 57c | 34.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 41c | 28.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Yes | 56c | 26.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…d357backed Yes | 59c | 25.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…b45fbacked Yes | 59c | 18.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.