NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa961c8308c73e3e4dbbd5ee2279d4bb9de6396e8e6a698bff7c5c0350df6b4eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Lakers, Thunder
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac25…433fbacked Lakers | 19c | 21,974$4,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,175.11 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Thunder | 76c | 827.39$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.7 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Lakers | 24c | 820$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Thunder | 80c | 432.29$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.84 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951f…e430backed Thunder | 77c | 333.01$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 236 | 52.5%124 W · 112 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Lakers | 20c | 330$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Thunder | 77c | 319.25$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Lakers | 22c | 305.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.41 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Lakers | 21c | 278.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Lakers | 22c | 272.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd334…fcc2backed Lakers | 20c | 244.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 247 | 25.9%64 W · 183 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lakers | 23c | 237.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Thunder | 78c | 220.79$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Thunder | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Lakers | 16c | 156.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Lakers | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd2…4c45backed Lakers | 24c | 121.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Lakers | 25c | 115.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Thunder | 74c | 109$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked Lakers | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1155…2315backed Thunder | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 221 | 70.6%156 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked Thunder | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Lakers | 19c | 96.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed Lakers | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8460…af5dbacked Lakers | 21c | 65.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Thunder | 74c | 64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Thunder | 78c | 62.71$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…2108backed Thunder | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Lakers | 19c | 55.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 279 | 42.7%119 W · 160 L | -14.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed Lakers | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Lakers | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…c2b6backed Thunder | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -5.4wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Thunder | 77c | 19.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 156 | 63.5%99 W · 57 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Thunder | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Thunder | 78c | 13.17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.9 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.