NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c361ec3c05670486c25fcc3a1c95567f1b75ebb2422083bb3154db0a0ac7d1a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 47c | 1,908$899 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$898.65 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 55c | 1,386$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.7 | 475 | 42.3%201 W · 274 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 51c | 766.92$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.79 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Yes | 46c | 606.05$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…0f6bbacked No | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +30%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 53c | 247.05$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.11 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…add4backed Yes | 49c | 204.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes | 50c | 197.84$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.92 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 50c | 197.84$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.92 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked No | 51c | 185.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed No | 50c | 141.1$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.07 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…ac5ebacked Yes | 49c | 122.41$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0744…774abacked Yes | 47c | 118.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 51c | 106.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.4 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…ef54backed No | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 50c | 87.64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 51c | 83.67$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1732…1c15backed Yes | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed No | 51c | 50.74$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…6701backed Yes | 45c | 50.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed No | 52c | 48.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 50c | 44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370a…86febacked Yes | 54c | 36.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5345…666abacked Yes | 48c | 31.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764d…96aebacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…98d9backed Yes | 50c | 29.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…0be2backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd184…806ebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 31.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Lakers won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Lakers vs. ThunderThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 107.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Under won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5No won
- Rui Hachimura: Points O/U 11.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-15.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-16.5)Thunder won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.