NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2fbabffd2198f2a0efd84ff89f62754f3bfff80b8733ecdd1bba8f7e0559faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 42c | 1,965$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.2 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…e2dbbacked Yes | 54c | 1,006$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.02 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb56…2492backed Yes | 59c | 971.35$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.09 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 43c | 935.31$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.18 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 48c | 639.61$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.01 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Yes | 57c | 437.07$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.07 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…9805backed Yes | 58c | 347.54$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.54 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 45c | 249.96$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.48 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83ed…03ebbacked Yes | 51c | 153.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.16 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 57c | 130.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 43c | 121.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Yes | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0366…a001backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c3…0472backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc882…4e6bbacked Yes | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…5672backed Yes | 57c | 85.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 43c | 77.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 51c | 69.39$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 44c | 64.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2161…c54cbacked Yes | 58c | 63.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 44c | 61.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5615…13c5backed Yes | 57c | 59.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked Yes | 57c | 52.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 57c | 52.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4480…8c0ebacked Yes | 56c | 41.07$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…7965backed No | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 52c | 35.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed No | 45c | 33.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0690…8821backed Yes | 56c | 30.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfea…dc29backed Yes | 57c | 29.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 43c | 27.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 44c | 26.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 49c | 24.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 138 | 31.2%43 W · 95 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…becfbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…70fabacked Yes | 56c | 18.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-20.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.