TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,855
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,839

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,855 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa804…bdc1backed Yes39c1,996$776 inWon+$1,220.147237.5%27 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed No61c1,510$926 inLost-$926.0236954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No61c499.99$305 inLost-$30539265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No58c220$128 inLost-$127.656050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Yes42c120$50 inWon+$69.67751.9%40 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3368…2079backed Yes33c99.99$33 inWon+$66.992326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-32.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1174…059abacked No67c89.55$60 inLost-$60977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+38.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No63c85$54 inLost-$53.896956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No62c65.15$40 inLost-$40.3992058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes36c61$22 inWon+$39.0453842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd755…61a1backed Yes37c59.51$22 inWon+$37.494037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b7…e2b5backed Yes38c56.93$22 inWon+$35.32552%13 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa34b…9d48backed Yes38c52.05$20 inWon+$32.05580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+84.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Yes38c52.02$20 inWon+$32.028544.7%38 W · 47 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes36c50.28$18 inWon+$32.0533049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed8…2f11backed Yes42c35.71$15 inWon+$20.71633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-39.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed No62c35$22 inLost-$21.749852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…5922backed Yes37c33$12 inWon+$20.79666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c69…e671backed No64c27.12$17 inLost-$17.326051.7%31 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No60c21$13 inLost-$12.5445445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.