NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3432eb0f203cbe12b208f0e07beba7be45f6fcca4fc386c2d837fe12602c690f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,010
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf60…a6f5backed Timberwolves | 35c | 10,000$3,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.99 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Spurs | 65c | 7,435$4,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,602.28 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Timberwolves | 43c | 6,878$2,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.42 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…f216backed Spurs | 58c | 5,525$3,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,320.5 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Spurs | 67c | 5,000$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 147 | 66%97 W · 50 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe830…3b3bbacked Spurs | 60c | 3,100$1,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226.99 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +163.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Timberwolves | 25c | 1,927$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.63 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves | 36c | 1,571$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.88 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Timberwolves | 35c | 1,133$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2e…f1c7backed Spurs | 66c | 1,071$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.47 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Timberwolves | 41c | 1,021$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.64 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked Spurs | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 362 | 43.9%159 W · 203 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Timberwolves | 17c | 803.57$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.25 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0676…8a28backed Spurs | 67c | 547.76$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Timberwolves | 37c | 516.25$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.01 | 469 | 59.1%277 W · 192 L | +28.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Timberwolves | 37c | 378.05$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.88 | 251 | 50.6%127 W · 124 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…8a37backed Spurs | 67c | 373.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.35 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Spurs | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 346 | 61.6%213 W · 133 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ff…479fbacked Timberwolves | 29c | 302.39$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…f016backed Spurs | 67c | 260.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.43 | 140 | 59.3%83 W · 57 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Spurs | 65c | 237.08$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.29 | 663 | 52.6%349 W · 314 L | +30.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb700…5a62backed Spurs | 79c | 233.82$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.69 | 176 | 60.8%107 W · 69 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…029ebacked Spurs | 67c | 201.4$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed Spurs | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 155$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.55 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x488e…ea2ebacked Spurs | 66c | 151.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.55 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Spurs | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Spurs | 68c | 147.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Spurs | 67c | 147.52$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3429…fb20backed Timberwolves | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…67cbbacked Spurs | 70c | 136.32$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Timberwolves | 34c | 130.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Spurs | 61c | 120.7$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Timberwolves | 26c | 118.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Spurs | 62c | 114.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.14 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…6e60backed Timberwolves | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Spurs | 66c | 101.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Timberwolves | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 138 | 31.2%43 W · 95 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Timberwolves | 33c | 87.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf060…fc59backed Timberwolves | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 135 | 39.3%53 W · 82 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Timberwolves | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Timberwolves | 40c | 71.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Timberwolves | 40c | 68.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 592 | 55.4%328 W · 264 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…b02fbacked Timberwolves | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Spurs | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed Timberwolves | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Timberwolves | 33c | 43.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 202 | 40.1%81 W · 121 L | -12.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Spurs | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Timberwolves | 34c | 41.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 521 | 50.9%265 W · 256 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Timberwolves | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 107 | 47.7%51 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Spurs | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b0…d65cbacked Spurs | 66c | 36.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9172…7f49backed Spurs | 67c | 35.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Spurs | 65c | 35.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Timberwolves | 41c | 30.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 259 | 58.3%151 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c43…31c1backed Spurs | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 120 | 44.2%53 W · 67 L | -8.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Spurs | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Spurs | 66c | 28.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Spurs | 65c | 28.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Timberwolves | 40c | 25.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 243 | 32.9%80 W · 163 L | -22.7wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Timberwolves | 47c | 23.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Spurs | 71c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Spurs | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 46 | 84.8%39 W · 7 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3443…64e9backed Spurs | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Spurs | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-20.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.