NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7555b72575663a0dc442b8b9b79963436c01c553d6fbeebfac4aa1167b5739d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Spurs, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,884
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,884 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 5,990$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,875.25 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Spurs | 52c | 5,972$3,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.39 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2efa…8a01backed Timberwolves | 53c | 1,280$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.3 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed Spurs | 50c | 991.57$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.57 | 197 | 41.6%82 W · 115 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Spurs | 48c | 977.08$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.08 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Spurs | 47c | 954.3$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.78 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Timberwolves | 52c | 761.07$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.22 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…b989backed Timberwolves | 52c | 717.46$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.08 | 492 | 44.3%218 W · 274 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Timberwolves | 53c | 609.99$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.88 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -9.1wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Spurs | 47c | 532.78$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.17 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c0…dadabacked Spurs | 50c | 527.88$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.06 | 125 | 41.6%52 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Spurs | 46c | 452.39$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.29 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Timberwolves | 54c | 381.74$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61a8…519dbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 370.59$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Timberwolves | 51c | 294.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 141 | 48.2%68 W · 73 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Timberwolves | 52c | 271.44$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 250.91$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.52 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Spurs | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Spurs | 48c | 209.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.29 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ff…9953backed Spurs | 48c | 206.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.63 | 118 | 64.4%76 W · 42 L | +15.6wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Timberwolves | 23c | 186.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Spurs | 48c | 177.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.08 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Timberwolves | 22c | 163.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a1…6daebacked Timberwolves | 52c | 130.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 224 | 42.9%96 W · 128 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Spurs | 49c | 123.88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.61 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 111.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Timberwolves | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Spurs | 48c | 101.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc06…d3b7backed Spurs | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Timberwolves | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Spurs | 47c | 60.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Spurs | 47c | 43.83$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb676…2dbbbacked Spurs | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…4cbabacked Spurs | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…2079backed Spurs | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8218…155bbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…9eb9backed Timberwolves | 53c | 35.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Timberwolves | 43c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Timberwolves | 43c | 27.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Spurs | 47c | 23.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed Timberwolves | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)this page
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-20.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.