TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,159
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,159 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe768…b331backed No54c399.99$216 inWon+$184.2139864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes46c309.32$142 inLost-$142.2995651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c94…f9f4backed No59c169$100 inWon+$69.468043.8%35 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Yes40c147.17$59 inLost-$58.8717151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Yes51c100$51 inLost-$517751.9%40 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked No50c96.54$48 inWon+$48.2717547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Yes50c80$40 inLost-$39.887237.5%27 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x330b…6e60backed Yes51c78.28$40 inLost-$405337.7%20 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes50c70.54$35 inLost-$35.2756050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No70c56.63$40 inWon+$16.7276054.6%415 W · 345 L+56.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+33.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes47c51.76$24 inLost-$24.4233049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8361…283ebacked Yes51c50.73$26 inLost-$25.87837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3368…2079backed Yes50c50$25 inLost-$25.22326.1%6 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-32.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No53c46.36$25 inWon+$21.7526755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No49c45$22 inWon+$22.9523741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x085b…ab9fbacked Yes46c31.67$15 inLost-$14.579941.4%41 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed No49c26.71$13 inWon+$13.6214148.2%68 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No43c24.63$11 inWon+$14.0490863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.