NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x494d227bdc5ef2e053342baf18905a0945bea13d4fbb4e5dcddee254af64b9ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,766
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 49c | 8,084$3,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,950.48 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a0…eabbbacked Under | 51c | 3,349$1,708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Over | 2c | 2,625$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 80 | 2.5%2 W · 78 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Under | 51c | 2,030$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$994.62 | 443 | 37.9%168 W · 275 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Over | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 6.5%8 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Over | 10c | 1,224$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…8b90backed Over | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Under | 73c | 1,022$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Over | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…0c42backed Under | 51c | 947.24$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.15 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea8…0412backed Under | 53c | 929.54$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.25 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…6e4ebacked Over | 6c | 874$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 312 | 38.5%120 W · 192 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 6c | 850$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 52c | 780.36$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.57 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed Over | 3c | 750$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Over | 8c | 683$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Over | 8c | 683$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 8c | 656$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 52c | 654$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.92 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Over | 8c | 558$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 330 | 30.9%102 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed Over | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 234 | 41.5%97 W · 137 L | +13.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed Over | 8c | 420$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 166 | 40.4%67 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58a6…b9debacked Over | 52c | 386.92$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Over | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 48c | 326.92$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Over | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Under | 63c | 225$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Over | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 236 | 49.2%116 W · 120 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Over | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Over | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 177 | 48%85 W · 92 L | +16.4wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 212 | 42%89 W · 123 L | +12.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…f22abacked Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 75c | 98.17$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…7219backed Over | 50c | 88.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 36c | 75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 45c | 63.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.52 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Over | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -9.1wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 50c | 53.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.48 | 405 | 46.9%190 W · 215 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…50febacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.1wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63de…5c02backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9798…abc3backed Over | 50c | 20.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 62c | 19.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-20.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.