TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,270
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,331

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,270 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xccb5…91d7backed Yes61c327.34$200 inWon+$127.751145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No39c318.57$124 inLost-$124.2479650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No42c174.17$73 inLost-$73.171,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca0d…2602backed Yes58c172.41$100 inWon+$72.413650%18 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae35…76dbbacked Yes50c150$75 inWon+$758100%8 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No42c103.45$43 inLost-$43.456147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9069…9c14backed Yes58c103.45$60 inWon+$43.4514557.2%83 W · 62 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No43c99.97$43 inLost-$42.9985449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Yes53c89.64$48 inWon+$42.1322656.6%128 W · 98 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked Yes60c42.98$26 inWon+$16.983964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x920e…7873backed Yes57c35.09$20 inWon+$15.0911645.7%53 W · 63 L-11.5wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1092…9cfabacked Yes58c34.6$20 inWon+$14.65257.7%30 W · 22 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No42c31.44$13 inLost-$13.2190863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5c43…31c1backed Yes55c19.99$11 inWon+$912044.2%53 W · 67 L-8.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba8c…e77dbacked Yes80c17.54$14 inWon+$3.511693.8%15 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.20per pick74cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.