NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12c74c245b3726bc03be47afb199107c4dfe78342ee5e32f70f2ba3f65f33eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,617
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,617 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Over | 52c | 3,751$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,803.19 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 48c | 2,831$1,359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,358.96 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7c…6244backed Under | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.77 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Under | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 46c | 796.02$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.17 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…ad4bbacked Over | 53c | 661.51$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.51 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 609.98$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.89 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 601.51$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.71 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 47c | 445.85$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.55 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 48c | 364.73$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.07 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 47c | 353.28$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.74 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09a…f936backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…5abfbacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ee…b517backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 45c | 181.73$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Over | 55c | 181.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.78 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over | 54c | 168.9$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.9 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b4…3824backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 151 | 49.7%75 W · 76 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc882…4e6bbacked Over | 53c | 130.19$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked Over | 54c | 98.89$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 53c | 93.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3854…862dbacked Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 48c | 88.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 130 | 47.7%62 W · 68 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc03a…a7bdbacked Over | 53c | 65.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 48c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -9.1wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadae…bc30backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 48c | 38.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd4…7401backed Over | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 249 | 36.9%92 W · 157 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Over | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 52c | 31.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Under | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…2079backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Over | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Over | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…52edbacked Over | 54c | 27.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…f4c5backed Over | 54c | 27.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 105.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Spurs won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-10.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-14.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-17.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-20.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Timberwolves vs. SpursSpurs won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 228.5Under won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.