AI · resolved market
Grok 4 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x473acca842031964646ce41ad87d632a3761396b6cf91bf2f96bb57115fa3724
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,253$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…ae93backed Yes | 1c | 3,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…46d4backed Yes | 1c | 2,501$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 10c | 2,228$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.58 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 4c | 2,223$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe305…e123backed Yes | 6c | 1,740$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…d9e0backed Yes | 21c | 1,603$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.63 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,579$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9321…7a34backed Yes | 10c | 1,380$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,327$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 19c | 1,300$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.12 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01f4…d22dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,158$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8b…529cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,134$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes | 60c | 1,069$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.48 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0682…fd43backed Yes | 72c | 931.86$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ad…b22abacked Yes | 14c | 683.8$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…96bdbacked Yes | 78c | 587.74$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 64c | 568.67$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.69 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01fd…03bcbacked Yes | 16c | 518.29$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked Yes | 4c | 495.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 6c | 482.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 10c | 479$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…02f6backed Yes | 45c | 467.54$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…b143backed Yes | 9c | 456.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 8c | 427.71$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa5…fdcbbacked Yes | 6c | 391.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…abdcbacked No | 51c | 382.68$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked No | 60c | 381.59$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…c14ebacked Yes | 6c | 362$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 79c | 349.98$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 75c | 337.99$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 8c | 265$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 72c | 262.75$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…336bbacked Yes | 8c | 260.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…67c3backed Yes | 20c | 199.9$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed No | 75c | 198$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd231…f0c6backed Yes | 10c | 178.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7552…50cfbacked Yes | 26c | 151.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 25c | 148$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 144.51$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.03 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88e3…5c26backed Yes | 15c | 143.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 15c | 143.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 50c | 139.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.49 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…8469backed No | 61c | 120.14$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 12c | 103.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…516ebacked Yes | 26c | 100.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…9dfbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ee…8836backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…c899backed Yes | 54c | 91.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked No | 79c | 85.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 58c | 79.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 23c | 63.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…50e4backed Yes | 26c | 39.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…7418backed Yes | 51c | 37.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5e…4168backed No | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…41bebacked No | 53c | 23.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 79c | 13.16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.