TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$77,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$65,883

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,926 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c10,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes19c6,347$1,229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.695016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes46c4,559$2,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,118.0311723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed No72c2,543$1,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.042166.7%14 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+88.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c2,168$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.1810126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed Yes28c1,763$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.642520%5 W · 20 L-5.8wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-71.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c1,600$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes3c1,456$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb00b…fbcabacked No44c1,441$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$806.961127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick49cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes51c1,187$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…0fdebacked No54c1,010$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a37…141abacked No27c1,002$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.462343.5%10 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes73c997$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.811681.3%13 W · 3 L+4.7wins+0.29per pick52cpaid+101.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xccf8…ded2backed Yes73c952$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.96944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick56cpaid+46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No27c947$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.312334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5a…cfefbacked Yes56c938$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.28911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.4wins-0.38per pick49cpaid-60.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd1ee…2867backed Yes56c912$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.72757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+28.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Yes2c900$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61ef…b300backed Yes70c849$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.31844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+78.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…6e2ebacked No30c849$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.31330.8%4 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick52cpaid-41.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes12c800$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes2c799.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164157.2%30 W · 385 L-26.1wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-69%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes23c776.23$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.531546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+77.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0285…59d6backed No55c773$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$347.851050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes45c773$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.852330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes8c637.05$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d93…7f30backed Yes26c620$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.2616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick39cpaid-75.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ff7…a220backed No74c620$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick37cpaid+124%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No42c608.86$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.685420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff2d…caf4backed Yes28c573$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.441233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes76c567.43$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.024360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No33c523.67$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.5320148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes12c506.1$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.043925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes14c501.66$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.181030%3 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No53c487.32$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.8320418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No66c455.61$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.2157426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7d2…39f0backed Yes28c451$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.281145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5485…ae4abacked Yes70c436.85$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.171040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x784a…c246backed Yes78c412.79$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.05450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+78.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80b9…cedcbacked Yes75c337.63$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.22450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes18c303.38$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.813330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes69c286.19$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.479839.8%39 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No44c258$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.481172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.33per pick40cpaid+126.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes10c247.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde62…64f6backed No72c244$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.32850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+78.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c240.42$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.8447938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ecb…b5e3backed No76c225$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1652…d578backed Yes22c224.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3477…1066backed No25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+100%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc667…ae1fbacked Yes53c200$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x998b…6d90backed Yes69c199.14$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No49c197.5$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.865848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46ca…2d58backed Yes68c195.7$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8750%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes14c185.7$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3911720.5%24 W · 93 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-60.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ce9…e3e2backed Yes12c174.44$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5130%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbceb…52a5backed Yes59c169.98$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-39.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba99…039abacked Yes63c154.33$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xce53…834bbacked Yes10c152$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb212…0f8ebacked No44c151$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.56837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fee…850abacked Yes68c147.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.01250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00e8…6c57backed Yes70c142.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No54c142$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.323551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x311b…b455backed Yes76c132.43$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d1e…6b94backed No79c126.81$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No32c126.68$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7514643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ed0…0532backed Yes24c123$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.521010%1 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d23…68fbbacked Yes47c118.52$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.381145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48d0…6ab2backed Yes59c118.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c111.28$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.561,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No30c105.76$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.098650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb88…4c4cbacked Yes47c105.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d8…e835backed Yes64c104.28$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.79450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a1…8919backed Yes24c102$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.48922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-65.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4b9b…0efebacked Yes49c101.6$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaae6…4053backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-80.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d75…0dc4backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc68b…346dbacked Yes69c86.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19b9…4798backed Yes25c85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No23c82.67$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.522977.7%23 W · 274 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f48…6f45backed Yes25c80.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-85.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes46c74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.043043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa1…99a7backed Yes35c73.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.72540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9567…20e3backed No33c72.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.641040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14db…0f89backed Yes24c71.15$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0860%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes28c70.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.751010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb53b…168dbacked Yes71c69.12$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes46c68$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.283151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf48…6f13backed Yes50c67.58$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.791136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x731d…4c25backed Yes75c66.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedff…e793backed Yes76c65.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No32c65.64$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9425122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x116b…adfdbacked Yes77c65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+30.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5825…9c91backed Yes78c64.4$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+79.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a5…41bcbacked Yes78c64.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+75.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2445…9862backed Yes78c64.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+78.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d72…dc3abacked Yes78c64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.97475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c27…fcd5backed Yes79c63.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+105.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No34c59.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.448815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79e6…aaa1backed No55c59$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.641172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+59.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.