AI · resolved market
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a560cf5d3d273a07824e57f12afc4d44d82487faed750081f2aad59934bd2ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,926
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,883
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,926 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 19c | 6,347$1,229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,228.69 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 46c | 4,559$2,118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,118.03 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0184…23f6backed No | 72c | 2,543$1,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.04 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 2,168$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.18 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 28c | 1,763$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.64 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes | 3c | 1,456$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 44c | 1,441$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes | 51c | 1,187$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…0fdebacked No | 54c | 1,010$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a37…141abacked No | 27c | 1,002$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.46 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes | 73c | 997$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.81 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.29per pick | 52cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xccf8…ded2backed Yes | 73c | 952$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.96 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 27c | 947$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…cfefbacked Yes | 56c | 938$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.28 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.38per pick | 49cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…2867backed Yes | 56c | 912$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 2c | 900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 70c | 849$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 30c | 849$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.3 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…8b51backed Yes | 12c | 800$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 799.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 23c | 776.23$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.53 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed No | 55c | 773$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed Yes | 45c | 773$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.85 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…a018backed Yes | 8c | 637.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d93…7f30backed Yes | 26c | 620$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff7…a220backed No | 74c | 620$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 37cpaid | +124%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 42c | 608.86$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.68 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed Yes | 28c | 573$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 76c | 567.43$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.02 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 33c | 523.67$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.53 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 12c | 506.1$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa89b…3c2bbacked Yes | 14c | 501.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 53c | 487.32$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.83 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 455.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.21 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed Yes | 28c | 451$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.28 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ae4abacked Yes | 70c | 436.85$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.17 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…c246backed Yes | 78c | 412.79$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80b9…cedcbacked Yes | 75c | 337.63$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 18c | 303.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 69c | 286.19$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.47 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac7…dc0bbacked No | 44c | 258$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.48 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.33per pick | 40cpaid | +126.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 247.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde62…64f6backed No | 72c | 244$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 240.42$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.84 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 76c | 225$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1652…d578backed Yes | 22c | 224.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3477…1066backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…ae1fbacked Yes | 53c | 200$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998b…6d90backed Yes | 69c | 199.14$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 49c | 197.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.86 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ca…2d58backed Yes | 68c | 195.7$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.9wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 14c | 185.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…e3e2backed Yes | 12c | 174.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbceb…52a5backed Yes | 59c | 169.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba99…039abacked Yes | 63c | 154.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…834bbacked Yes | 10c | 152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb212…0f8ebacked No | 44c | 151$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…850abacked Yes | 68c | 147.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00e8…6c57backed Yes | 70c | 142.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 54c | 142$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x311b…b455backed Yes | 76c | 132.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed No | 79c | 126.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 32c | 126.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed Yes | 24c | 123$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…68fbbacked Yes | 47c | 118.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d0…6ab2backed Yes | 59c | 118.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 111.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 105.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…4c4cbacked Yes | 47c | 105.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…e835backed Yes | 64c | 104.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…8919backed Yes | 24c | 102$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…0efebacked Yes | 49c | 101.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…4053backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…0dc4backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc68b…346dbacked Yes | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b9…4798backed Yes | 25c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 23c | 82.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f48…6f45backed Yes | 25c | 80.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 46c | 74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa1…99a7backed Yes | 35c | 73.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…20e3backed No | 33c | 72.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14db…0f89backed Yes | 24c | 71.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 28c | 70.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb53b…168dbacked Yes | 71c | 69.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 46c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 50c | 67.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731d…4c25backed Yes | 75c | 66.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedff…e793backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 32c | 65.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.94 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…adfdbacked Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…9c91backed Yes | 78c | 64.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a5…41bcbacked Yes | 78c | 64.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +75.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2445…9862backed Yes | 78c | 64.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…dc3abacked Yes | 78c | 64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…fcd5backed Yes | 79c | 63.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 34c | 59.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed No | 55c | 59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.