AI · resolved market
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcaa5988656f92123f26fb2ed7a55d59f8991e5e27a80263f9d15aeedad851156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $654,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $646,677
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $654,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 7,526$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…1f86backed Yes | 4c | 4,868$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…9262backed Yes | 5c | 4,221$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8805…385ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,116$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…449ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,622$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…02dabacked Yes | 3c | 3,507$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…5fbbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,414$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…fdd6backed Yes | 8c | 3,406$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…d67bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,160$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cec…09babacked Yes | 4c | 2,970$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…c462backed Yes | 5c | 2,835$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…5340backed Yes | 5c | 2,659$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762f…b2c0backed Yes | 4c | 2,629$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6976…eef3backed Yes | 5c | 2,572$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…9246backed Yes | 4c | 2,569$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…a181backed Yes | 4c | 2,507$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbe…e297backed Yes | 5c | 2,506$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1783…5c0bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,485$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…7f32backed Yes | 4c | 2,410$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…84d3backed Yes | 4c | 2,403$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4aa…ba4abacked Yes | 5c | 2,402$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb2…81a3backed Yes | 5c | 2,375$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…b0fabacked Yes | 4c | 2,339$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71a1…65bebacked Yes | 5c | 2,337$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…1cd6backed Yes | 5c | 2,266$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1f…fa20backed Yes | 5c | 2,206$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fe…a98bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,136$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…c227backed Yes | 8c | 2,131$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda7…dfd8backed Yes | 4c | 2,086$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f6…e558backed Yes | 4c | 2,050$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…7f3cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,040$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b83…8ec0backed Yes | 3c | 2,012$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaef1…fb71backed Yes | 4c | 1,996$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd9…5be7backed Yes | 4c | 1,981$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb264…cf1abacked Yes | 4c | 1,954$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,940$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c7…e934backed Yes | 4c | 1,925$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…35e4backed Yes | 5c | 1,900$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…e7c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,857$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…49aabacked Yes | 4c | 1,851$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3e…f0ecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,849$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd6…7322backed Yes | 4c | 1,831$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 6c | 1,818$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…eeafbacked Yes | 5c | 1,815$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…ac30backed Yes | 4c | 1,809$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772d…0adebacked Yes | 4c | 1,774$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…82b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,773$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f51…e67abacked Yes | 4c | 1,741$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b0…8a31backed Yes | 4c | 1,687$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde13…17d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,646$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e76…40adbacked Yes | 5c | 1,639$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae85…5884backed Yes | 4c | 1,602$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…bd09backed Yes | 4c | 1,592$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…0271backed Yes | 5c | 1,586$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86e…5b2ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,555$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…3630backed Yes | 4c | 1,528$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d6…ddcdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,521$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5039…da08backed Yes | 4c | 1,508$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd109…3637backed Yes | 7c | 1,498$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf83a…bb2dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,455$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdebf…947fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,453$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf817…dfc4backed Yes | 5c | 1,452$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1c…4fd7backed Yes | 4c | 1,417$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a85…a8b7backed Yes | 4c | 1,417$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 1,408$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d6…3ae9backed Yes | 5c | 1,405$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…0128backed Yes | 5c | 1,396$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf885…82d4backed Yes | 4c | 1,368$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,361$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1850…c06bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,334$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8260…7b20backed Yes | 3c | 1,332$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…57cbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,283$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,272$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d8ddbacked Yes | 4c | 1,259$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x679f…a8aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,259$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ab…29a3backed Yes | 4c | 1,245$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…55d0backed Yes | 4c | 1,244$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d76…ea83backed Yes | 4c | 1,229$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1009…6a7ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,227$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2a…cc99backed Yes | 4c | 1,217$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808f…6efbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,193$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc6…0cc9backed Yes | 4c | 1,188$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…756dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,185$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a44…cc54backed Yes | 8c | 1,148$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…b5d6backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b74…fda9backed Yes | 3c | 1,136$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…1f7abacked Yes | 4c | 1,134$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc3…d28cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,121$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b09…7af3backed Yes | 5c | 1,121$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…e672backed Yes | 4c | 1,118$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2484…7569backed Yes | 4c | 1,106$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed No | 79c | 1,089$860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.97 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc359…28a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,072$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…9e60backed Yes | 4c | 1,063$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…6f12backed Yes | 4c | 1,058$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe26f…add7backed Yes | 4c | 1,042$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x348e…9735backed Yes | 4c | 1,039$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9821…cdd3backed Yes | 4c | 1,032$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…8738backed Yes | 4c | 1,025$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x814b…0052backed Yes | 4c | 999$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?Yes won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.