TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$654,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$646,677

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $654,981 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 200 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x250c…2774backed Yes0c7,526$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052003.5%7 W · 193 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x969c…1f86backed Yes4c4,868$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253b…9262backed Yes5c4,221$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8805…385ebacked Yes4c4,116$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4221…449ebacked Yes4c3,622$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dd2…02dabacked Yes3c3,507$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf90…5fbbbacked Yes4c3,414$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73b9…fdd6backed Yes8c3,406$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x13c0…d67bbacked Yes4c3,160$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cec…09babacked Yes4c2,970$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…c462backed Yes5c2,835$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x467e…5340backed Yes5c2,659$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762f…b2c0backed Yes4c2,629$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6976…eef3backed Yes5c2,572$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c6b…9246backed Yes4c2,569$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c80…a181backed Yes4c2,507$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fbe…e297backed Yes5c2,506$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1783…5c0bbacked Yes5c2,485$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda39…7f32backed Yes4c2,410$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x710c…84d3backed Yes4c2,403$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4aa…ba4abacked Yes5c2,402$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb2…81a3backed Yes5c2,375$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914d…b0fabacked Yes4c2,339$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71a1…65bebacked Yes5c2,337$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b3…1cd6backed Yes5c2,266$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b1f…fa20backed Yes5c2,206$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2fe…a98bbacked Yes8c2,136$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x484f…c227backed Yes8c2,131$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda7…dfd8backed Yes4c2,086$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65f6…e558backed Yes4c2,050$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee55…7f3cbacked Yes4c2,040$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b83…8ec0backed Yes3c2,012$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…fb71backed Yes4c1,996$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd9…5be7backed Yes4c1,981$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb264…cf1abacked Yes4c1,954$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes2c1,940$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.75016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c7…e934backed Yes4c1,925$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e63…35e4backed Yes5c1,900$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd091…e7c6backed Yes4c1,857$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb790…49aabacked Yes4c1,851$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a3e…f0ecbacked Yes4c1,849$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bd6…7322backed Yes4c1,831$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes6c1,818$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.99593.4%2 W · 57 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick9cpaid-94.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb14…eeafbacked Yes5c1,815$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3904…ac30backed Yes4c1,809$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x772d…0adebacked Yes4c1,774$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf758…82b3backed Yes4c1,773$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f51…e67abacked Yes4c1,741$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32b0…8a31backed Yes4c1,687$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde13…17d8backed Yes4c1,646$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e76…40adbacked Yes5c1,639$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae85…5884backed Yes4c1,602$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c3…bd09backed Yes4c1,592$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e3…0271backed Yes5c1,586$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa86e…5b2ebacked Yes5c1,555$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bae…3630backed Yes4c1,528$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27d6…ddcdbacked Yes4c1,521$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5039…da08backed Yes4c1,508$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd109…3637backed Yes7c1,498$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83a…bb2dbacked Yes5c1,455$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdebf…947fbacked Yes4c1,453$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf817…dfc4backed Yes5c1,452$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a1c…4fd7backed Yes4c1,417$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a85…a8b7backed Yes4c1,417$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c1,408$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4210126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8d6…3ae9backed Yes5c1,405$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a81…0128backed Yes5c1,396$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf885…82d4backed Yes4c1,368$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes4c1,361$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.945420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1850…c06bbacked Yes4c1,334$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8260…7b20backed Yes3c1,332$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03b3…57cbbacked Yes4c1,283$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,272$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.261,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06fa…d8ddbacked Yes4c1,259$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x679f…a8aebacked Yes5c1,259$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01ab…29a3backed Yes4c1,245$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x369f…55d0backed Yes4c1,244$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d76…ea83backed Yes4c1,229$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1009…6a7ebacked Yes4c1,227$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2a…cc99backed Yes4c1,217$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x808f…6efbbacked Yes4c1,193$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dc6…0cc9backed Yes4c1,188$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8005…756dbacked Yes4c1,185$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a44…cc54backed Yes8c1,148$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da3…b5d6backed Yes4c1,137$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b74…fda9backed Yes3c1,136$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2c2…1f7abacked Yes4c1,134$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc3…d28cbacked Yes4c1,121$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b09…7af3backed Yes5c1,121$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0005…e672backed Yes4c1,118$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2484…7569backed Yes4c1,106$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf48…6f13backed No79c1,089$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.971136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc359…28a0backed Yes4c1,072$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2324…9e60backed Yes4c1,063$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da1…6f12backed Yes4c1,058$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe26f…add7backed Yes4c1,042$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x348e…9735backed Yes4c1,039$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9821…cdd3backed Yes4c1,032$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffac…8738backed Yes4c1,025$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x814b…0052backed Yes4c999$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.