AI · resolved market
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x674c36575dbf22212cd47a8fe9a97a9ff7c124da709828558baa63aaf704be85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,186
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 0c | 10,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 64c | 8,753$5,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,136.01 | 117 | 23.9%28 W · 89 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed Yes | 27c | 3,348$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450.67 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 47c | 1,841$865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.3 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed Yes | 49c | 1,832$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.32 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0019…6629backed Yes | 77c | 1,695$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97d1…b2efbacked No | 27c | 1,546$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 32c | 1,490$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 1,409$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.12 | 101 | 26.7%27 W · 74 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…66fdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,330$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 3c | 1,300$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 89 | 33.7%30 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 53c | 1,273$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.89 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 29c | 1,195$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.19 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed No | 46c | 1,158$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.68 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 53c | 1,055$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.15 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4348…fa2abacked Yes | 29c | 1,028$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97bb…3f73backed No | 52c | 1,010$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…c246backed Yes | 28c | 937.44$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked No | 71c | 917$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6007…9553backed No | 74c | 891$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.34 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8433…6e0fbacked No | 71c | 823$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d23…68fbbacked Yes | 32c | 817.06$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.79 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 71c | 798$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes | 41c | 794.51$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.25 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 73c | 791$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.57 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 789.34$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.51 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2de8…293cbacked Yes | 48c | 779$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.08 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a80…7deabacked Yes | 73c | 778.68$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed Yes | 73c | 765$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…1c15backed No | 71c | 737$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.27 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9677…78e9backed Yes | 68c | 679.53$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a16…0c03backed No | 51c | 624$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked No | 51c | 621$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.71 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…9a60backed Yes | 54c | 582$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.72 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 54c | 576$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.96 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 26c | 567$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.58 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes | 26c | 556$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.44 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 26c | 555$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 38c | 546$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 52c | 536$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.72 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed Yes | 47c | 533$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.49 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked No | 52c | 532$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.64 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf8…0657backed Yes | 47c | 522$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.66 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa457…1a93backed No | 68c | 514$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.52 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed Yes | 43c | 440.65$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.65 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked No | 68c | 405$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…8b51backed No | 16c | 400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ae4abacked Yes | 64c | 398.89$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 367.64$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.96 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 352.03$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.78 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes | 29c | 346$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.66 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 44cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 77c | 321.22$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 34c | 317.49$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.62 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 33c | 304.85$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc64a…178dbacked No | 7c | 300.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…4cc1backed Yes | 55c | 299.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0733…cd5abacked No | 27c | 291$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…0511backed Yes | 73c | 281$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.87 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7764…8747backed Yes | 23c | 240.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 220.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked Yes | 21c | 219.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.79 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc667…ae1fbacked Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 194.44$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 62c | 186$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43c9…47c1backed No | 62c | 172$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.64 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 33cpaid | +117%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes | 59c | 170.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 169.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 78c | 167$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 22c | 167$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.26 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…4e1cbacked Yes | 76c | 165.71$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc574…b9dabacked Yes | 49c | 164.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +169%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 41c | 156.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 26c | 155.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.62 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084f…4e9cbacked No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb8…3808backed Yes | 76c | 130.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.95 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…1763backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…80c5backed Yes | 39c | 126.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d8…e835backed Yes | 32c | 118.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +57%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 46c | 112.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.09 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…5db6backed Yes | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.98 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed No | 23c | 99.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fee…850abacked Yes | 40c | 90$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 25c | 85.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.65 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.4wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x551f…9aa6backed Yes | 24c | 82.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.87 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +172.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…c74bbacked Yes | 72c | 82.69$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 26c | 81.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a02…b863backed Yes | 76c | 77.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 75.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 65c | 73.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x369a…0b41backed Yes | 32c | 72.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 47c | 70.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +55%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 35c | 66.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 80c | 63.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?this page
- Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Oracle be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
- Will Saudi Aramco be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.