TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$93,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$95,186

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,504 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed No0c10,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee8…1154backed Yes64c8,753$5,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,136.0111723.9%28 W · 89 L+0.3wins0.00per pick24cpaid-58.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed Yes27c3,348$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450.678815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes47c1,841$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$976.32458.3%14 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed Yes49c1,832$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.322263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+40.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0019…6629backed Yes77c1,695$1,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.56862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97d1…b2efbacked No27c1,546$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.421533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x846d…4ab2backed Yes32c1,490$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.21442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No64c1,409$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.1210126.7%27 W · 74 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-37.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Yes29c1,330$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.31936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed No3c1,300$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348933.7%30 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-25.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed No53c1,273$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.893345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No29c1,195$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.195420.4%11 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-31.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed No46c1,158$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.682330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-50.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked No53c1,055$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.151625%4 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-52.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4348…fa2abacked Yes29c1,028$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.88933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97bb…3f73backed No52c1,010$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x784a…c246backed Yes28c937.44$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.39450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+78.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked No71c917$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.071127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick50cpaid-56.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6007…9553backed No74c891$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.34933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8433…6e0fbacked No71c823$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.331050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d23…68fbbacked Yes32c817.06$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$554.791145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked No71c798$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.582334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick42cpaid+0.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ca…66edbacked Yes41c794.51$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.255016%8 W · 42 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes73c791$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.571643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c789.34$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.5147938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked Yes48c779$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.081553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a80…7deabacked Yes73c778.68$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-54.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Yes73c765$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.55837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0367…1c15backed No71c737$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.27862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+74.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9677…78e9backed Yes68c679.53$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.53850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed No51c624$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.241233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea5a…e6aebacked No51c621$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.711764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+46%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Yes54c582$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.721758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes54c576$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.961553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed Yes26c567$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+71.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc04c…44ffbacked Yes26c556$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.441656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+91.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes26c555$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb547…a237backed Yes38c546$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.521741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed No52c536$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.722040%8 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed Yes47c533$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.491353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+38.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked No52c532$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.642334.8%8 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed Yes47c522$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.662462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa457…1a93backed No68c514$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.521540%6 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-33.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes43c440.65$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.653925.6%10 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-45.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd98f…5afdbacked No68c405$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdfd…8b51backed No16c400$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5485…ae4abacked Yes64c398.89$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.121040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No73c367.64$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.968650%43 W · 43 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No45c352.03$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.7857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed Yes29c346$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.661181.8%9 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.37per pick44cpaid+96.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x8594…7eedbacked Yes77c321.22$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.384271.4%30 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes34c317.49$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.621546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick32cpaid+77.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked No33c304.85$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-42.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc64a…178dbacked No7c300.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d78…4cc1backed Yes55c299.99$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0733…cd5abacked No27c291$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.57837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01d6…0511backed Yes73c281$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.87683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+81.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7764…8747backed Yes23c240.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.33771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick42cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No7c220.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.372792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked Yes21c219.98$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.793537.1%13 W · 22 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No75c200$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.2614643.8%64 W · 82 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc667…ae1fbacked Yes24c200$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c194.44$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4920148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed No62c186$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.321154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+52.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43c9…47c1backed No62c172$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.641258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.26per pick33cpaid+117%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf788…6cdbbacked Yes59c170.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.08666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No62c169.98$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.975848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No78c167$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.263043.3%13 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes22c167$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.263551.4%18 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5358…4e1cbacked Yes76c165.71$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.77650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc574…b9dabacked Yes49c164.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.943100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+169%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No41c156.67$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9313738%52 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes26c155.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.623315.2%5 W · 28 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-57%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x084f…4e9cbacked No75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x58b8…e4d3backed Yes76c131.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fb8…3808backed Yes76c130.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.95475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ca…1763backed Yes77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.876100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x71ea…80c5backed Yes39c126.91$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.912100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+92.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d8…e835backed Yes32c118.81$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.28450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+57%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No46c112.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0920418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa371…5db6backed Yes59c109$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7157…7ba4backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed Yes26c100$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743426.5%9 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.12per pick14cpaid+72.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fc8…5709backed No23c99.96$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.871560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+48.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fee…850abacked Yes40c90$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22a4…13e5backed Yes25c85.41$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.461450%7 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+72.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe27e…a9d0backed Yes26c85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.651675%12 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+76.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x551f…9aa6backed Yes24c82.87$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+172.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec20…c74bbacked Yes72c82.69$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No68c82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4919834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No26c81.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.575756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a02…b863backed Yes76c77.26$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes30c75.03$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.81,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x99ba…6391backed No65c73.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.986033.3%20 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x369a…0b41backed Yes32c72.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes47c70.65$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick57cpaid+55%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes35c66.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.517350.3%87 W · 86 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes80c63.37$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.673330.3%10 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.