Token Launches · resolved market
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b1338856baf704786e383ca88373b32bc5164601e86522cd84b476aba68b1ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $309,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $314,317
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $309,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8392…b94ebacked Yes | 0c | 39,065$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1681…b1c7backed Yes | 36c | 15,456$5,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,515.02 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3c91…b9d4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 8,828$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.73 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 66c | 6,555$4,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.39 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf74b…95cbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,140$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.04 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69be…7c2ebacked Yes | 8c | 5,554$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,484$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9781…bc2abacked No | 57c | 5,480$3,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,342.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…f0abbacked Yes | 7c | 5,104$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…7a2abacked No | 67c | 4,800$3,216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,584 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…1b97backed Yes | 1c | 4,356$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac61…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 3,833$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 43c | 3,770$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,165.11 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,645$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 41c | 3,173$1,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,304.28 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 26c | 3,116$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.54 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…dc2cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,009$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,964$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.03 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca53…d319backed Yes | 43c | 2,400$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Yes | 9c | 2,400$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa787…a9d1backed Yes | 1c | 2,355$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 57c | 2,331$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.46 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 2,292$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4df…6a6fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,159$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3495…0b3bbacked Yes | 57c | 2,070$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…4c91backed No | 45c | 2,017$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,104.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 41c | 2,000$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,181.88 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,999$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.71 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 55c | 1,900$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.69 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0feb…9876backed Yes | 51c | 1,820$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 1,699$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a3…f596backed Yes | 11c | 1,681$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 1,584$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…00c6backed No | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,452$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a55…ffaabacked No | 55c | 1,446$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 16c | 1,402$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.96 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab3…b750backed No | 43c | 1,301$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.79 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…e7d0backed No | 23c | 1,294$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.63 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10cd…018dbacked No | 62c | 1,247$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…fcb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,174$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 43c | 1,116$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.37 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a4…09fdbacked Yes | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…bfcabacked Yes | 58c | 1,070$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 9c | 1,059$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…8828backed Yes | 69c | 1,009$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.39 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c8…8cf5backed No | 50c | 1,008$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…4285backed No | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.23 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d99…b892backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +103.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 5c | 999.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…4f37backed Yes | 60c | 964.05$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa268…9211backed Yes | 42c | 947.95$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…de7ebacked Yes | 24c | 929.97$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 919$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2e…35bfbacked Yes | 30c | 917.98$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.93 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 56c | 906.8$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.63 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 57c | 902.99$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.65 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 10c | 814.66$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…ad3bbacked No | 62c | 812.63$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Yes | 7c | 797.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 765.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2121…5f82backed No | 55c | 759.99$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.3 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb70…41c2backed No | 18c | 753.95$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.67 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…177bbacked No | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ee…0991backed Yes | 42c | 713.48$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd062…7929backed Yes | 38c | 700$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac3…6f93backed Yes | 45c | 700$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4027…1f6abacked No | 58c | 630$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.4 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…5e11backed No | 37c | 613.18$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes | 56c | 611.38$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.83 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed Yes | 42c | 568.03$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 31c | 559.88$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.61 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…d5b1backed No | 42c | 553.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…0159backed No | 36c | 550.25$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 57c | 547.29$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.96 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d71…c775backed Yes | 6c | 545.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…23e6backed Yes | 46c | 538.43$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 531.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…4c9cbacked Yes | 42c | 530$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a22…97d6backed No | 48c | 521.36$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 57c | 505$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 38c | 500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 452.77$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2973…abcfbacked Yes | 43c | 451.82$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 48c | 434.54$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.88 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3335…3656backed No | 37c | 402.49$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 44cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb013…6b3abacked No | 43c | 400.74$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.42 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d27…5350backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d62…7a44backed Yes | 53c | 400$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72a4…aa66backed No | 26c | 399.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…6604backed Yes | 5c | 399.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 8c | 388$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 385.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 78c | 350.59$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 49c | 348.14$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.14 | 119 | 42%50 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe2…727abacked Yes | 48c | 341.64$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?this page
- Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.