Token Launches · resolved market
Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x796f36313d1142d739eafc84298b81832a1fa0efd4d332fdc7f03a9a906ff012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $133,772
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $143,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $133,772 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc974…f0abbacked Yes | 5c | 7,021$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed No | 51c | 5,240$2,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,567.73 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4433…ca27backed Yes | 49c | 4,806$2,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8028…677abacked Yes | 50c | 4,040$2,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 3,458$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…e7d0backed No | 57c | 3,042$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.8 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 55c | 2,659$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.54 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,154$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.63 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…5e11backed No | 66c | 1,671$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.73 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b3…8828backed Yes | 54c | 1,485$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,457$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 4c | 1,444$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…3c54backed Yes | 1c | 1,350$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,327$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,216$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked No | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…1223backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.4 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…400cbacked Yes | 22c | 959.45$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.88 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…f19fbacked Yes | 3c | 821$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 3c | 816.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 124 | 3.2%4 W · 120 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe730…e424backed No | 66c | 779.69$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.97 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb256…3f94backed Yes | 13c | 769.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 700$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc7…a728backed Yes | 31c | 655.67$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee2…bea6backed Yes | 32c | 633.67$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.77 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…803cbacked Yes | 48c | 619.8$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 603$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 23c | 599.74$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.68 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a22…97d6backed No | 60c | 583.75$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 47c | 548.02$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.45 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 531.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 123 | 4.1%5 W · 118 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405e…de7ebacked Yes | 15c | 521.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…f992backed Yes | 36c | 517.16$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.67 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed No | 72c | 483.23$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.56 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked Yes | 34c | 466.94$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 41cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…5b98backed Yes | 16c | 410.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 6c | 379.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -93.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked No | 66c | 370$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.8 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…7924backed Yes | 25c | 346.67$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.67 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…8512backed Yes | 26c | 330.77$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…990ebacked Yes | 31c | 327.23$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 325.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 209 | 4.3%9 W · 200 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 315.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…6d57backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…dfa9backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…654cbacked Yes | 31c | 299.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb132…6943backed Yes | 48c | 296$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bc…dc95backed No | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 10 | 100%10 W · 0 L | +3.6wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…d195backed Yes | 25c | 268.39$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…de37backed No | 79c | 252.07$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…23e6backed Yes | 40c | 250.37$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88aa…ea6fbacked No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 62c | 250$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.5 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 72c | 211.11$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.79 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed No | 52c | 206$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.88 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…884ebacked Yes | 24c | 206$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x667d…052dbacked Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked Yes | 48c | 195$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 23c | 192.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 66c | 192.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 103 | 70.9%73 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 74c | 188.47$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 185.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.33 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84d6…bca9backed Yes | 54c | 185$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e5…9f9cbacked Yes | 14c | 178.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ee…9597backed No | 59c | 175.37$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 162 | 47.5%77 W · 85 L | +13.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed No | 52c | 171$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…edc2backed Yes | 14c | 167.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6a…becebacked Yes | 30c | 166.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6360…787ebacked Yes | 31c | 159.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed No | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +152.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe63…49d0backed Yes | 28c | 124.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 119.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…e317backed No | 35c | 119.16$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +9.8wins | +0.38per pick | 47cpaid | +125.5%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8a12…dfa3backed No | 78c | 113.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 46c | 112$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed No | 54c | 105.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x493d…538cbacked Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…5557backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2aeb…01a8backed No | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e45…6f64backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…0cd1backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ab…d1b2backed Yes | 56c | 83.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…f7fabacked No | 69c | 81.16$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…9810backed No | 61c | 80$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd68c…c2f1backed Yes | 20c | 79.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 46c | 73$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +107.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c0…c793backed No | 70c | 70.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…0490backed No | 69c | 69.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc700…becabacked No | 44c | 67.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8816…8b54backed No | 79c | 66.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 33c | 61.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…8344backed No | 51c | 57.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…f4d1backed No | 48c | 56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed Yes | 52c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…ee29backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- Aztec FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Aztec FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $300M one day after launch?No won
- Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.