TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,994
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$231,867

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,994 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8714…4faabacked Yes5c14,412$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.983743.2%16 W · 21 L+10.6wins+0.29per pick15cpaid+113.1%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x625f…e2c0backed Yes6c6,349$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.035915.3%9 W · 50 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56f0…1c37backed Yes35c6,286$2,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.294639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked Yes29c5,247$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.091127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-53.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbaf…0145backed No79c5,076$4,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes12c5,000$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57593840.2%377 W · 561 L-69.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4cc…6135backed Yes5c4,125$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.973729.7%11 W · 26 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes6c4,038$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.51306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce71…d5f6backed Yes39c3,625$1,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,413.021963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb0d…d142backed Yes14c3,088$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.6630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7057…f998backed Yes3c2,886$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.91346.2%6 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.29per pick18cpaid+200.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6f0c…20bfbacked Yes54c2,812$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.341040%4 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-46.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes12c2,806$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.736041.7%25 W · 35 L+7.6wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+161.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe10f…1a87backed Yes19c2,564$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47740%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5c9…41b5backed No44c2,444$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,361.312166.7%14 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+32.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b00…d78bbacked No69c2,330$1,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$725.852060%12 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No48c2,315$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,196.8824126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes31c2,286$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.04397.7%3 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-80.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x71ab…f015backed Yes8c2,249$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1513949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes17c2,057$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.164520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5543…8d64backed Yes5c2,016$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.322722.2%6 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.11per pick11cpaid+65.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60fc…03b0backed Yes20c2,001$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes22c1,932$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.5221228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1615…8f2bbacked No56c1,916$1,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.044447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a6a…170fbacked Yes3c1,674$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c1,669$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.751,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed Yes20c1,651$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.911040%4 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick17cpaid+59.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x778e…2f26backed Yes2c1,599$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes23c1,554$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3604526.7%12 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c90…8770backed Yes55c1,553$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.3370%0 W · 7 L-3.1wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes3c1,475$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.771884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c1,426$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.652934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…24cebacked Yes33c1,405$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6be…43c9backed Yes42c1,244$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5201822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick23cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes4c1,205$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98150%0 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe891…4b25backed No37c1,173$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.441770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.23per pick47cpaid+44.5%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes4c1,158$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.64908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f1…6415backed No70c1,109$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.511838.1%45 W · 73 L-10.6wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes18c1,061$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.8230238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes19c1,055$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.562313%3 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x718e…3ef9backed Yes9c1,022$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.451127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-42.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes4c1,001$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.227812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4529…e6e8backed Yes3c998$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64ea…5575backed Yes5c970$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+64.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed No75c945.32$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.122673.1%19 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes1c939.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.751987.1%14 W · 184 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-69.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes3c924.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b05…e567backed Yes3c889.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes73c857.54$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.37966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+86.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes2c839.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.97752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6658…8afdbacked No13c810.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.48580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+142.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6879…178fbacked Yes25c796.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf597…2370backed Yes19c792.57$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.251540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa970…7d4bbacked Yes21c790.36$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.01333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+327.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes3c773.38$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9167…5338backed Yes12c758.81$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.6170%0 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes2c756.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.754228.6%12 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+84.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No67c751.18$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.1810743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes3c648.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45a6…1b74backed Yes2c625.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4262…abaabacked No76c616.55$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.311258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c614.89$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.852324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes19c592.3$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103522.9%8 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-43.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a84…7101backed Yes14c574.72$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831010%1 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-71.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes26c573.46$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.0829747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a00…3451backed Yes45c559.91$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+98.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x498d…9e5ebacked Yes9c550.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-56.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4879…808fbacked Yes35c540.91$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes3c528.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.434214.3%6 W · 36 L-0.1wins0.00per pick15cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9360…b9c7backed Yes19c526.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+96.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f86…404ebacked Yes69c524.92$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.161471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf29…dbacbacked Yes58c518.96$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d97…d127backed Yes24c517.11$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.444027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7655…1fa8backed Yes20c514.2$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.552920.7%6 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x790e…7c32backed Yes4c507.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b7…cdf3backed Yes20c505.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.651315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d06…17e2backed Yes54c505.6$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.581414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-64.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2405337.7%20 W · 33 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-32.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe6e1…6579backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes25c496.76$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.2620624.8%51 W · 155 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6745…b791backed Yes20c495.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x027c…b158backed No14c491.99$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.111942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+38.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c486.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3926413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f4f…6232backed Yes61c483.68$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.832528%7 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x78cc…c56ebacked Yes33c453.26$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.41844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe166…0099backed Yes33c401$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2db…6865backed No43c400.79$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.684161%25 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+180.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No23c399.49$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5130718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c388.93$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No23c388.64$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.474134.1%14 W · 27 L+6.9wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+46.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x5aee…d8debacked Yes5c383.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65d4…b7e3backed No79c378.25$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.252378.3%18 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick74cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce9…e3e2backed Yes3c378.14$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68e8…c464backed No80c376.62$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.622181%17 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf27…c258backed Yes29c376.27$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf6d…0162backed Yes36c373.08$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+86.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes4c372$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2470%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed No61c371.11$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Yes10c364.1$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.