Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6b901b6284681f043927cbff08c67eee8f7180d6d117bb48365095b8be4cc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 5c | 14,412$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.98 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 6c | 6,349$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.03 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 35c | 6,286$2,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,223.29 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 29c | 5,247$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,502.09 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaf…0145backed No | 79c | 5,076$4,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 5,000$575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed Yes | 5c | 4,125$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.97 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 4,038$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.5 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…d5f6backed Yes | 39c | 3,625$1,413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.02 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…d142backed Yes | 14c | 3,088$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…f998backed Yes | 3c | 2,886$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…20bfbacked Yes | 54c | 2,812$1,508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,508.34 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 12c | 2,806$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.73 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…1a87backed Yes | 19c | 2,564$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 44c | 2,444$1,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,361.31 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b00…d78bbacked No | 69c | 2,330$1,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.85 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 48c | 2,315$1,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.88 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,286$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.04 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 8c | 2,249$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.15 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 17c | 2,057$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.16 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 5c | 2,016$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…03b0backed Yes | 20c | 2,001$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 22c | 1,932$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.52 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 56c | 1,916$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.04 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a6a…170fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,674$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 1,669$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 20c | 1,651$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…2f26backed Yes | 2c | 1,599$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,554$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c90…8770backed Yes | 55c | 1,553$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.33 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 3c | 1,475$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,426$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…24cebacked Yes | 33c | 1,405$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 42c | 1,244$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,205$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed No | 37c | 1,173$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.44 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,158$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 70c | 1,109$778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,061$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.82 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 19c | 1,055$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.56 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718e…3ef9backed Yes | 9c | 1,022$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,001$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4529…e6e8backed Yes | 3c | 998$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ea…5575backed Yes | 5c | 970$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 75c | 945.32$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.12 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 939.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 3c | 924.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…e567backed Yes | 3c | 889.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes | 73c | 857.54$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 2c | 839.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…8afdbacked No | 13c | 810.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.48 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6879…178fbacked Yes | 25c | 796.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…2370backed Yes | 19c | 792.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…7d4bbacked Yes | 21c | 790.36$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +327.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 3c | 773.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9167…5338backed Yes | 12c | 758.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.61 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 2c | 756.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 67c | 751.18$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.18 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 3c | 648.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a6…1b74backed Yes | 2c | 625.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 76c | 616.55$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.31 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 614.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 19c | 592.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 14c | 574.72$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 26c | 573.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.08 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…3451backed Yes | 45c | 559.91$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x498d…9e5ebacked Yes | 9c | 550.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4879…808fbacked Yes | 35c | 540.91$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 3c | 528.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9360…b9c7backed Yes | 19c | 526.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 69c | 524.92$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.16 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…dbacbacked Yes | 58c | 518.96$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 24c | 517.11$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 20c | 514.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.55 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…7c32backed Yes | 4c | 507.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…cdf3backed Yes | 20c | 505.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 54c | 505.6$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.58 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 496.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.26 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6745…b791backed Yes | 20c | 495.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed No | 14c | 491.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 486.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 61c | 483.68$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.83 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…c56ebacked Yes | 33c | 453.26$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.4 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…0099backed Yes | 33c | 401$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed No | 43c | 400.79$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.68 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 23c | 399.49$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.51 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 388.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 23c | 388.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.47 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5aee…d8debacked Yes | 5c | 383.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 79c | 378.25$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…e3e2backed Yes | 3c | 378.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 80c | 376.62$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…c258backed Yes | 29c | 376.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…0162backed Yes | 36c | 373.08$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked Yes | 4c | 372$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed No | 61c | 371.11$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Yes | 10c | 364.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.