Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe37d220b66736832461822c1f1f2eb336c5b45520c011fc2a0c9f754c5dcabbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4964…a330backed No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 29c | 3,499$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.82 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 4c | 3,210$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.71 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 72c | 3,034$2,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.77 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 2,392$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…45eebacked Yes | 12c | 2,106$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.3 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64bb…125fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,696$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Yes | 25c | 1,606$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 2c | 1,597$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.84 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,566$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…de33backed Yes | 14c | 1,533$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,482$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes | 3c | 1,425$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,416$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 21c | 1,394$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.96 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e6…24fabacked Yes | 23c | 1,300$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 1,203$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,134$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…6f81backed Yes | 4c | 930.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 828.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fc…2f27backed Yes | 24c | 696.62$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 71c | 529.98$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.79 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3e…8150backed Yes | 5c | 496.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…5726backed Yes | 23c | 431.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 406.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 30c | 370$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 348$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 337.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473b…8790backed Yes | 5c | 307.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…7a59backed No | 74c | 284.73$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 75c | 267.17$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 12c | 259.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 13c | 247.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.04 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…4e93backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…a90bbacked Yes | 25c | 198.8$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…add9backed Yes | 21c | 195.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5104…a114backed Yes | 20c | 147.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2a…aab2backed No | 71c | 140.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4450…086cbacked No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…c61ebacked Yes | 30c | 133.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 10c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 15c | 103.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…4be4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 71c | 96.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…feb9backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38e9…736dbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…246ebacked No | 38c | 80.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dc…01c9backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked No | 73c | 53.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465a…3b86backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa45f…f4d8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…33fabacked No | 74c | 48.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x63d0…326ebacked No | 78c | 44.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 31c | 35.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…08e6backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…dc04backed No | 77c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.