Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91c226a7ddf5bdd99c6af3b61a2e3463201cb8d06ab69087bfd4cd889476260b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,037 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7f57…2282backed No | 0c | 27,194$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…3313backed No | 0c | 25,133$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd5…f114backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 1c | 5,725$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca3…9914backed No | 1c | 5,104$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 0c | 5,038$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 53c | 4,967$2,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,348.62 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 26c | 4,738$1,234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3d…f757backed No | 1c | 3,998$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,756$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.87 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x413a…0008backed No | 44c | 1,488$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.56 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…eaf4backed No | 8c | 1,099$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2708…bd47backed Yes | 71c | 976.95$695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…c2a6backed Yes | 52c | 900$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…e448backed Yes | 65c | 763.71$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 2c | 684.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 639.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 3c | 548.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 42c | 510.19$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.9 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 5c | 508.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.69 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51c7…71b4backed No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 4c | 405.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…09e8backed Yes | 10c | 300.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +547.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 25c | 281.12$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 54c | 254.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 230.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 25c | 204.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.2 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6735…f5b7backed Yes | 10c | 195.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.53 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6a…5d33backed No | 58c | 194.07$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7058…57b4backed Yes | 42c | 193.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…fbb3backed No | 58c | 172.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2db…6865backed Yes | 51c | 161.98$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ea…1616backed Yes | 51c | 142.92$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 23c | 141.7$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…e658backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…8bd6backed No | 39c | 128.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 73c | 120$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 25c | 110.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e1fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +129.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked No | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…b947backed No | 53c | 96.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.1wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x09ab…fd5fbacked Yes | 21c | 93.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +72.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43b7…106cbacked No | 57c | 87.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…d453backed Yes | 43c | 82.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 26c | 72.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 33c | 64.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9e…50eebacked Yes | 50c | 59.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…fd51backed Yes | 46c | 58.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53b5…d768backed Yes | 49c | 55.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a46…59abbacked No | 36c | 55.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…c056backed No | 42c | 54.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 74c | 50.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 68 | 72.1%49 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 28c | 46.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.22 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf526…349cbacked No | 46c | 43.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 51c | 39.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 43c | 36.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed No | 67c | 32.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff09…f664backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…5c95backed Yes | 47c | 28.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29aa…c568backed Yes | 49c | 21.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…c6bbbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x941e…9775backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 59c | 19.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed No | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.