TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$155,927

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,927 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7f57…2282backed No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…3313backed No0c21,802$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bd5…f114backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa01b…1ea8backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeae7…2800backed No10c9,934$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae01…0c40backed No0c7,068$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.984330.2%13 W · 30 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a0…5bdcbacked No0c4,745$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x413a…0008backed No16c3,040$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.19128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick27cpaid-68.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xff00…228cbacked No11c2,801$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f02…f844backed No12c2,056$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-52.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe758…c90ebacked No52c955.19$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No2c745.93$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.628617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No3c731.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1116516.4%27 W · 138 L+12.2wins+0.07per pick9cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd2af…28c3backed Yes75c624$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.81546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9092…554ebacked No18c599.07$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes59c538.76$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.0530238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd7…2f6bbacked No21c466$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No6c406.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.564520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No26c384.71$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.5524126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes72c366$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8134534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd83f…96f1backed No40c345.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5645…5d21backed Yes79c316.63$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.63771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No3c300$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4530%0 W · 53 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed Yes41c300$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1773661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed No4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No16c289.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.569616.7%16 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x375e…6c94backed No46c270.91$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbdf…3256backed Yes60c259.99$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4083…308fbacked Yes55c252$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.2850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-23.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes32c238.75$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.2129747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x49f7…046bbacked No31c229.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3791…158fbacked Yes79c217.99$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.14560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25ed…b701backed No39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ab…fd5fbacked Yes41c184.22$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.22560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+72.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked No16c180$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.85050%25 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No21c170.14$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.037921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd297…2919backed Yes71c163.28$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.914261.9%26 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No10c160.9$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1426413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes62c150$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No57c149.47$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.264440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6b5c…c056backed No35c146.3$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.393951.3%20 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+51.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes69c139.44$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7918637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6d9…e296backed Yes74c124.27$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…a81dbacked Yes79c120.26$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.898262.2%51 W · 31 L+11.8wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked No46c107.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.39per pick53cpaid-79.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes78c105.88$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1dc…5460backed Yes46c102.29$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.622669.2%18 W · 8 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+34.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes60c99.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed Yes72c98.6$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9610967%73 W · 36 L+12.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes66c92.95$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.632023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes59c90.96$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.134520%9 W · 36 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf7ce…7f30backed No15c88.79$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No17c88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8bd…3a9cbacked No40c87.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb901…b947backed No61c80.18$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9150%0 W · 5 L-3.1wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x983c…e82cbacked No19c78.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f79…e33ebacked Yes40c78$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.431060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+53%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf827…530dbacked No27c74.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick60cpaid-69.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes63c72.89$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.195145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes47c70.33$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.383441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed No23c69.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.314528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x626e…e8e3backed Yes73c68.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.632100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce71…d5f6backed Yes78c64.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.11963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d0d…fbb3backed No56c53.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc101…e6d1backed No54c53.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294626.1%12 W · 34 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc6…4690backed Yes39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.31735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-33%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7588…f732backed No50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x95bf…043dbacked No58c45.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes69c45.17$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.834134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60df…8e3dbacked Yes76c39.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a87…20f1backed No54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes68c32.77$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.335028%14 W · 36 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.8323846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0041…5462backed No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.72254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8adb…e1fdbacked Yes68c29.39$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.39540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+129.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes56c29.16$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7316050.6%81 W · 79 L+13.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28b0…94cabacked Yes69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff09…f664backed Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf609…e68bbacked Yes62c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8210866.7%72 W · 36 L+15.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+16.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked Yes56c24.07$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.594973.5%36 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb092…df9bbacked No50c22.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb15b…5215backed Yes63c15.9$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.882369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe59e…4af8backed Yes69c15.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.94475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.