Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e4ef5dab2d763c97a447e8d82f597d83ad95b7e577d4f7bb654dcd54a12e13c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $484,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $484,140 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x921d…81a5backed No | 0c | 75,677$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…eb5abacked No | 0c | 59,770$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed No | 1c | 45,563$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 29,422$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed No | 0c | 16,642$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce84…86f0backed No | 1c | 13,922$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…59a8backed No | 0c | 10,247$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 10,050$7,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,488.47 | 930 | 40.3%375 W · 555 L | -67.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…0c19backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed No | 2c | 9,277$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 0c | 7,005$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…f998backed Yes | 5c | 6,115$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,787.73 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…f608backed No | 3c | 4,938$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf094…5290backed No | 2c | 4,626$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9b…0fdbbacked No | 0c | 4,621$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a1…5064backed No | 1c | 4,596$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…47a8backed No | 1c | 4,175$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 32c | 4,149$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,819.07 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5f…634dbacked No | 21c | 3,823$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.57 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2c90…85b1backed No | 4c | 3,621$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0247…bb07backed No | 8c | 3,279$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3838…2c6fbacked No | 54c | 2,941$1,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.6wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5353…5c48backed No | 1c | 2,880$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed No | 5c | 2,691$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.79 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…1741backed No | 0c | 2,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked No | 4c | 2,470$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.02 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf5…b17fbacked No | 20c | 2,375$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.96 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 2,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b00…d78bbacked No | 39c | 1,843$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.68 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 22c | 1,842$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.65 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 33c | 1,837$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.53 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 11c | 1,746$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.86 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 39c | 1,513$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.56 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked No | 7c | 1,335$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…7d4bbacked Yes | 8c | 1,282$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +327.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 53c | 1,280$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.95 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 3c | 1,279$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 8c | 1,200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.26 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 1,139$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.79 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 1,124$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…e448backed Yes | 46c | 1,034$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 2c | 1,030$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.74 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6658…8afdbacked No | 6c | 1,010$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +142.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…03b0backed Yes | 50c | 993.32$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…f1b3backed No | 5c | 979.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 3c | 915.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…d5f6backed Yes | 50c | 896.46$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…dae8backed No | 65c | 859.43$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9b…3c25backed Yes | 53c | 832.17$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 61c | 811.48$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 7c | 805.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 777.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 767.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.93 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db5…057fbacked No | 11c | 753.54$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 3c | 750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78cc…c56ebacked Yes | 49c | 736.1$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 14c | 715.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 18c | 679.27$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.87 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed No | 10c | 613.47$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 12c | 583.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.52 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…abaabacked No | 62c | 564.43$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…21f7backed No | 6c | 560.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9d…d9babacked No | 2c | 520.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.22per pick | 31cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…2370backed Yes | 61c | 508.38$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.38 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b6…1c8cbacked Yes | 16c | 507.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.37 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…c117backed Yes | 5c | 499.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.47 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…2ca0backed No | 10c | 494.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…c464backed No | 61c | 491.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 61c | 491.89$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 6c | 489$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6d…0162backed Yes | 74c | 483.74$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 53c | 481.94$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.82 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 12c | 460.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a5…92babacked Yes | 6c | 457$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +1,688.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c1…119cbacked No | 3c | 434.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x473b…8790backed Yes | 27c | 416.97$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.1 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa80e…b94bbacked No | 10c | 410$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca91…1907backed Yes | 37c | 402.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd5…f2cfbacked No | 79c | 399.99$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172f…3f8abacked Yes | 5c | 399.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.04 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d5…7023backed Yes | 25c | 390.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +297.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 59c | 383.62$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.87 | 294 | 47.3%139 W · 155 L | +34.3wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 56c | 354.63$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 29c | 349.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.26 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ea…5575backed Yes | 29c | 346.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2af…28c3backed Yes | 67c | 345$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.27 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…ad23backed No | 20c | 344.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 15c | 341.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.23 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.95 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 5c | 292.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.1 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 9c | 288.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.63 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 22c | 287.01$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4faabacked No | 9c | 280$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked No | 10c | 279.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 262.06$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f70…c229backed No | 5c | 255.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…a349backed Yes | 79c | 252.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…2897backed No | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 62c | 245.75$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.