TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,013

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2fea…077dbacked Yes34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,70020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86e3…2e0dbacked No66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7002100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95e0…c9dabacked Yes2c4,630$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-65.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c3,115$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.622934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes4c2,821$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.174228.6%12 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+84.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes3c1,425$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.471884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked Yes10c1,119$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.573228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes6c1,079$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.117812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes14c945.73$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.83234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c918.02$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes1c899.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.174420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf5a6…f836backed No66c881$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ab…4122backed No66c872$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaf0…8642backed No66c869$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb286…92ffbacked No66c863$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5123…5e35backed No66c858$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.722100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1585…8bbbbacked Yes10c770.81$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.181520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d80…2070backed Yes40c748.14$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick37cpaid-87.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0bba…6f81backed Yes9c664.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.81270%0 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x72b7…43e7backed No66c627$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes2c620.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.861212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c567.12$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.082324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed Yes31c564.41$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1741338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb4b…b3f4backed No74c420.48$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.481190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.3wins+0.39per pick52cpaid+84.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9d4a…c2a6backed No65c399.98$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.996100%6 W · 0 L+3.2wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+129.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x24be…183ebacked Yes39c361.88$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes13c315.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.453030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca4f…ff9ebacked No73c273.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes38c266.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No74c244.49$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.62070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e9e…6fb1backed Yes31c225.81$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes23c219.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7124126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed No60c201.24$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.613661.1%22 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1f34…b449backed Yes26c200$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5120%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed No66c196.68$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.871675%12 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefe9…7aaabacked Yes17c177.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.87728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c64…4e93backed Yes35c176.78$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.031050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No62c176.76$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.684134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f06…add9backed Yes39c170$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.3825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69ac…4be4backed Yes33c168.83$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick36cpaid-45.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfec5…b63abacked No63c159.07$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.07875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f2…b4ebbacked No71c140.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.582080%16 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x473b…8790backed Yes11c140.51$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5260…fd71backed Yes31c137.02$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.482245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes10c133.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.44214.3%6 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes35c129.02$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes28c127.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.231,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1137…4ed5backed No79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5810743%46 W · 61 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcda6…3f07backed Yes22c120.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.483941%16 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb34…a1cdbacked No67c120$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.81656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes35c107.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6230718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356475%48 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x634a…07b2backed Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7355…e9a5backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c50…73b8backed No71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes34c99.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes29c99.14$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.843036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53e…f9f6backed Yes34c96.69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.871573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.2wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+68.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb092…df9bbacked Yes44c88.57$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3920%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x95fe…e658backed No74c87.96$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.29785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x05b5…037fbacked No67c84.31$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.013100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf98…d0bfbacked No66c75.42$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.424852.1%25 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x96e8…d240backed Yes29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.41118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes29c70$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.14818.8%9 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952c…5414backed Yes29c61.02$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x919d…f748backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010551.4%54 W · 51 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x476c…ce52backed Yes29c56.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4616050.6%81 W · 79 L+13.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No79c55.33$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3713858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea72…2ddabacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes27c48.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+23.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…7a59backed No67c48.42$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4506…b665backed No62c48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.24450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No62c44.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9611139.6%44 W · 67 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3187…834dbacked Yes35c42.86$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes36c37.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3330238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed No64c34.12$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.125246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b13…0440backed Yes31c33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes32c32.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.612231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed No65c30.83$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.663441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19fd…ca44backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe59e…4af8backed No73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed No64c27.2$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.791330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-42.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d31…0fa2backed No70c25.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3213…dd1fbacked No70c24.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No65c21.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.543053.3%16 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75d6…1578backed No74c20.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62df…1411backed No64c20.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.39366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f7d…f070backed No65c20.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c8a…7764backed No67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+236.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e7…0791backed No58c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b5c…c056backed No69c16.66$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.163951.3%20 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+51.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3cb3…2e7bbacked No64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf196…ef6bbacked No68c15.51$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.972458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No73c14.5$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.9818637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.