Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e9abfa2226be99f6117decde5454cc81916c04990f2f8b691ca762ee5aa9dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $238,052
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $213,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,052 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 2c | 20,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 11,827$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.09 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fd…3144backed Yes | 2c | 5,618$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…285dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,498$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,637$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f2…b7cebacked Yes | 3c | 3,978$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 2c | 2,983$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc77…0644backed Yes | 1c | 2,880$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,855$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,850$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,754$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeee…f608backed Yes | 0c | 2,495$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d3…9eb8backed Yes | 1c | 2,220$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 3c | 2,049$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bba…6f81backed Yes | 11c | 1,906$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.34 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 7c | 1,875$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc445…f6ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,669$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64b…3903backed Yes | 1c | 1,609$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 59c | 1,208$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.57 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,165$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.77 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…6877backed Yes | 9c | 1,098$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 12c | 1,075$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.75 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0834backed Yes | 10c | 1,018$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…3313backed Yes | 10c | 1,010$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.44 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba7…b461backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa8…cf3dbacked No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3314backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…2e0dbacked No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 82 | 4.9%4 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073a…2cdabacked Yes | 50c | 999.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fea…077dbacked Yes | 42c | 978.73$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x622e…feb9backed Yes | 4c | 936.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4b…b3f4backed No | 76c | 818.9$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.6 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.3wins | +0.39per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 807.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473b…8790backed Yes | 14c | 725.22$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 30c | 711.78$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.83 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…b4ebbacked No | 57c | 687.37$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.37 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f94…c240backed Yes | 2c | 664.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 25c | 655.6$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.37 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes | 2c | 625$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 2c | 575.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 54c | 566.41$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff5…e66bbacked Yes | 2c | 542.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x171e…e046backed Yes | 19c | 526.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 492.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 51c | 487.93$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.95 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b09…e8efbacked Yes | 40c | 483.34$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 73c | 462.66$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.62 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd3…37d0backed Yes | 50c | 410$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 14c | 394.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.24 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…69b3backed Yes | 51c | 389.26$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 13c | 382$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.41 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes | 3c | 309.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…f0b0backed Yes | 10c | 290.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes | 46c | 276.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e7…6b92backed No | 50c | 262.01$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…d5f6backed No | 61c | 243.69$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.01 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 243.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba65…3d7dbacked Yes | 54c | 239.86$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…14ebbacked Yes | 8c | 238.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 237.5$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…8818backed Yes | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…c056backed No | 57c | 226.8$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…ff0ebacked Yes | 36c | 223$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 67c | 199.97$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 64 | 75%48 W · 16 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…948ebacked Yes | 8c | 197$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce53…834bbacked Yes | 50c | 196.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 46c | 196.29$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 44c | 184.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f4…95dbbacked Yes | 55c | 182.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…4122backed No | 58c | 180$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5027…cca7backed Yes | 9c | 177.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…0216backed Yes | 14c | 177$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…edd5backed No | 53c | 176$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb286…92ffbacked No | 58c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a6…f836backed No | 58c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb05…5b10backed No | 53c | 169$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1d…7025backed No | 53c | 169$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27b…95f3backed No | 53c | 167$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbf…0367backed No | 53c | 166$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…43e7backed No | 58c | 164$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f06…add9backed Yes | 50c | 163.87$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…5e35backed No | 58c | 160$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 52c | 157.62$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…8642backed No | 58c | 156$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e97…d710backed No | 53c | 153$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…a1cdbacked No | 62c | 140.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.37 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 137.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…962ebacked No | 49c | 122.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x710f…09a6backed No | 48c | 120.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x336f…c31ebacked Yes | 18c | 118.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f8…f21abacked Yes | 50c | 118.37$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x634a…07b2backed Yes | 52c | 117.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb83…42d5backed No | 67c | 105.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 109 | 67%73 W · 36 L | +12.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.