TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$238,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$213,910

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes2c20,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c11,827$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.09932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fd…3144backed Yes2c5,618$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27a3…285dbacked Yes4c5,498$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002114.3%3 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c4,637$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.412221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f2…b7cebacked Yes3c3,978$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c3,300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes2c2,983$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.825810.3%6 W · 52 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc77…0644backed Yes1c2,880$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes1c2,855$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.21912.2%2 W · 89 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c2,850$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.512324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c2,754$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.281,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeee…f608backed Yes0c2,495$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-80.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27d3…9eb8backed Yes1c2,220$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes3c2,049$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.441884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bba…6f81backed Yes11c1,906$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.34270%0 W · 27 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xa719…0f74backed Yes7c1,875$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.254228.6%12 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+84.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc445…f6ebbacked Yes1c1,669$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe64b…3903backed Yes1c1,609$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No59c1,208$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.5730238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes16c1,165$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.777812.8%10 W · 68 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x13b6…c633backed Yes1c1,140$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.66752.7%2 W · 73 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…6877backed Yes9c1,098$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked Yes12c1,075$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.753228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc0e…0834backed Yes10c1,018$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6318…3313backed Yes10c1,010$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3e…783bbacked No51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.443268.8%22 W · 10 L+7.5wins+0.24per pick45cpaid+68.1%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x7ba7…b461backed Yes2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfa8…cf3dbacked No53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4701100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa25c…3314backed Yes47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e3…2e0dbacked No58c1,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4202100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37ea…f395backed Yes4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.78824.9%4 W · 78 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x073a…2cdabacked Yes50c999.99$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.9wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-55%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2fea…077dbacked Yes42c978.73$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x622e…feb9backed Yes4c936.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.664413.6%6 W · 38 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-64.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb4b…b3f4backed No76c818.9$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.61190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.3wins+0.39per pick52cpaid+84.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes1c807.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.131212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x473b…8790backed Yes14c725.22$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes30c711.78$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.8324126.1%63 W · 178 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f2…b4ebbacked No57c687.37$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.372080%16 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f94…c240backed Yes2c664.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes25c655.6$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.373234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3e0…72a6backed Yes2c625$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes2c575.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.693821.1%8 W · 30 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+7.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed Yes54c566.41$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3074440.9%18 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.15per pick56cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3ff5…e66bbacked Yes2c542.26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x171e…e046backed Yes19c526.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc2…3c7fbacked No60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2002070%14 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2138…8a11backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes4c492.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.526413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62e8…c7f6backed No51c487.93$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.957444.6%33 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b09…e8efbacked Yes40c483.34$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.34616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick38cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No73c462.66$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.6213858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bd3…37d0backed Yes50c410$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-61.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes14c394.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.241216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e94…69b3backed Yes51c389.26$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick37cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes13c382$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.413737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes3c309.72$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ae…2b33backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483030%9 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b9…f0b0backed Yes10c290.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c2a…6f46backed Yes46c276.98$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.881442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-20.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63e7…6b92backed No50c262.01$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick29cpaid+204.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce71…d5f6backed No61c243.69$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.011963.2%12 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.20per pick43cpaid+21.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes28c243.07$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0918637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba65…3d7dbacked Yes54c239.86$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a9…14ebbacked Yes8c238.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No79c237.5$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6923846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb78…8818backed Yes52c230.77$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+127.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b5c…c056backed No57c226.8$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.73951.3%20 W · 19 L+7.5wins+0.19per pick32cpaid+51.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa28c…ff0ebacked Yes36c223$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3170%0 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked No67c199.97$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.996475%48 W · 16 L+7.6wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+16.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc1fd…948ebacked Yes8c197$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.76616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce53…834bbacked Yes50c196.4$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes46c196.29$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5629747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed Yes44c184.13$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.284134.1%14 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f4…95dbbacked Yes55c182.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9ab…4122backed No58c180$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5027…cca7backed Yes9c177.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3c4…0216backed Yes14c177$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.373441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…edd5backed No53c176$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb286…92ffbacked No58c170$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5a6…f836backed No58c170$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb05…5b10backed No53c169$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e1d…7025backed No53c169$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf27b…95f3backed No53c167$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbbf…0367backed No53c166$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72b7…43e7backed No58c164$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f06…add9backed Yes50c163.87$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.64825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5123…5e35backed No58c160$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes52c157.62$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.964233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-11.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcaf0…8642backed No58c156$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.522100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e97…d710backed No53c153$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb34…a1cdbacked No62c140.59$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.371656.3%9 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes12c137.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.567921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19a7…962ebacked No49c122.7$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.7683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+51.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x710f…09a6backed No48c120.49$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.194100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x336f…c31ebacked Yes18c118.53$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.273036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f8…f21abacked Yes50c118.37$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x634a…07b2backed Yes52c117.96$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612634.6%9 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick53cpaid-35.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb83…42d5backed No67c105.37$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.0410967%73 W · 36 L+12.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.