Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d830590334e9ee8814eafb05b352b9091956e74f99c47bd8f784015d5a6152
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,991
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,991 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 7,900$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb85…bf3ebacked Yes | 4c | 5,263$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 1c | 2,694$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 1c | 2,453$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 2,292$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefb5…9452backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 1,468$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…124ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…8dc5backed Yes | 2c | 1,131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 1c | 1,089$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,001$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e67…8c5dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe626…92b5backed Yes | 8c | 477.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 3c | 469.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f71…912dbacked Yes | 10c | 463.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…3b87backed Yes | 4c | 461.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd4…5a2ebacked Yes | 7c | 457.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6f…a587backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 280.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 277.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1,038 | 9.2%96 W · 942 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbff…f748backed Yes | 4c | 246.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 8c | 179.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd585…0f14backed Yes | 11c | 134.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd167…d5b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 75cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.