Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x705950ba0fdd7a14711be6f5f8afcd79948cb141a02d0f95340a219c0595ea64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $496,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $377,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $496,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8d6…3631backed No | 0c | 131,149$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d7…fdbfbacked No | 0c | 72,110$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ada…a375backed No | 0c | 65,471$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…20bfbacked No | 0c | 50,050$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…c60dbacked No | 0c | 17,012$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…0d09backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa17f…9729backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…69dfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa01b…1ea8backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9092…554ebacked No | 5c | 6,275$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 1c | 5,174$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd2…a590backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked No | 1c | 4,999$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +261.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 2,791$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x439c…908ebacked No | 1c | 2,790$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked No | 2c | 2,489$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.86 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb316…ac53backed No | 5c | 2,083$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 1c | 2,003$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…da22backed No | 4c | 1,956$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 1,880$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6995…e448backed Yes | 48c | 1,465$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 78c | 1,007$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.84 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5889…8078backed No | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed No | 2c | 900$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa534…c089backed No | 75c | 882.15$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 33c | 844.08$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.59 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 58c | 832.84$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.02 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c37…9ebfbacked Yes | 75c | 675.6$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…e84dbacked Yes | 31c | 674.05$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.55 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 63c | 650.5$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.81 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…cae4backed No | 2c | 644.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 33c | 628.05$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.54 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 6c | 588.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7057…f998backed Yes | 10c | 547.72$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.95 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf597…2370backed Yes | 57c | 507.94$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.95 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 36c | 502.49$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 36c | 415.51$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…e3e2backed No | 5c | 410$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…0f74backed Yes | 9c | 400$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…78dfbacked Yes | 67c | 374.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 36c | 351.74$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.55 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 30c | 334.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.76 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65d4…b7e3backed No | 70c | 286.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 5c | 279.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec5…b63abacked No | 71c | 269.81$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 64c | 268.84$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.9 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 28c | 250.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.06 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.98 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 34c | 237.04$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.59 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d0…ef39backed Yes | 62c | 236.04$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…d5f6backed Yes | 53c | 228.9$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 215.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.63 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 10c | 210.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63e7…6b92backed Yes | 14c | 203.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x541d…8f88backed No | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…41f7backed Yes | 19c | 199$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.19 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5682…97afbacked Yes | 73c | 173.85$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.95 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…720cbacked No | 37c | 171.58$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 63c | 167.96$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.52 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf98…d0bfbacked No | 77c | 167.24$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.1 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdac5…ae24backed No | 72c | 166.59$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.41 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 75c | 157$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bf…84c7backed Yes | 24c | 149.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…190bbacked Yes | 11c | 149.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.49 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172f…3f8abacked Yes | 14c | 148.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +241.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236e…b247backed No | 15c | 146.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 28c | 135.05$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…fd51backed Yes | 35c | 134.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked Yes | 73c | 134.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 64c | 134.46$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…17e2backed Yes | 30c | 133.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 37c | 132.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa56…4967backed No | 78c | 128.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Yes | 61c | 123.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa56…5519backed Yes | 41c | 115.9$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…e26dbacked No | 75c | 113.36$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc804…f615backed Yes | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +95.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5c…c056backed No | 69c | 104.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.11 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 32cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 78c | 101.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…948ebacked No | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c10…df5cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.22per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…c2a6backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +129.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 59c | 96.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…7eabbacked Yes | 16c | 96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb34…a1cdbacked No | 76c | 91.92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 90.2$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 71c | 84.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 23c | 82.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98c1…3d1ebacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…5c9ebacked No | 63c | 75.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa555…bcf2backed No | 75c | 73.56$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +391.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked No | 71c | 71.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 71.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 67c | 71.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.