Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e750673ac2a6e674b4ffe3bf27785b6b2ecd8f7914589b1be5027c1591df829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $318,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,422
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 2c | 17,895$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.71 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 13,875$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 6c | 11,799$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.47 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…7d4bbacked Yes | 13c | 8,217$1,064 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +327.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…1a87backed Yes | 6c | 7,667$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 5c | 7,356$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.93 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 7c | 7,320$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.49 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 3c | 6,415$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.16 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…d5f6backed Yes | 22c | 5,133$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,149.06 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 4,489$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.92 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,898$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.77 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 30c | 3,746$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110.67 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 6c | 3,639$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.48 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3176…3990backed Yes | 6c | 3,599$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 3,517$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.9 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 4c | 3,221$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.15 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 8c | 3,129$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,859$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9167…5338backed Yes | 4c | 2,856$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c90…8770backed Yes | 17c | 2,756$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,715$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.03 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 1c | 2,564$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…467bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,545$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…7101backed Yes | 5c | 2,539$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 17c | 2,388$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.19 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…d127backed Yes | 18c | 2,043$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.11 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6253…47f3backed Yes | 1c | 2,014$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 1,926$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 17c | 1,917$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.86 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…980ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,890$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe3…c1eebacked Yes | 1c | 1,810$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19b…0f5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,735$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…41f7backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 1,655$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,561$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,482$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…6a94backed Yes | 3c | 1,467$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,399$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda19…32bbbacked Yes | 16c | 1,390$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4f…6232backed Yes | 16c | 1,237$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.71 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…e18cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,179$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd04…f28abacked Yes | 5c | 1,118$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…14ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,086$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,053$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 6c | 1,043$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.15 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 1,014$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7fe…ba06backed Yes | 10c | 1,013$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 15c | 942.45$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.58 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…1fa8backed Yes | 9c | 914.58$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.93 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 24c | 903.3$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.49 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ad…65fdbacked Yes | 1c | 897.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8462…b8bebacked Yes | 12c | 841.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf45b…e45fbacked Yes | 2c | 841.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…81fabacked Yes | 6c | 823.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…2f5cbacked Yes | 3c | 818.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d58…1aeabacked Yes | 11c | 816.47$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.74 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 807.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 53 | 0%0 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…4b25backed No | 63c | 790$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.3 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe551…7382backed Yes | 2c | 761.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa56…5519backed Yes | 10c | 759.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 23c | 723.94$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.16 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Yes | 5c | 716.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dd…c0cdbacked Yes | 19c | 699$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3526…60c8backed Yes | 6c | 696.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0965…bd95backed Yes | 8c | 664.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 651.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.5 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked Yes | 8c | 637.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba7…b461backed Yes | 16c | 630$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b7…cdf3backed Yes | 13c | 622.32$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 3c | 606.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…43c9backed Yes | 17c | 597.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…c5cdbacked Yes | 28c | 596.85$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.56 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57a7…3becbacked Yes | 3c | 530.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 10c | 525.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 508.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes | 5c | 500.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6e…be92backed Yes | 8c | 485.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 9c | 485.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 61 | 14.8%9 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…6d1ebacked Yes | 12c | 481.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…f37abacked Yes | 6c | 473.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe9…7aaabacked Yes | 2c | 464.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d6…930dbacked Yes | 10c | 455.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 3c | 450$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 55c | 439.37$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.72 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 57cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 4c | 400.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 69 | 2.9%2 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca15…f1b3backed No | 76c | 384.4$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…3478backed Yes | 22c | 365.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…ad23backed Yes | 20c | 355.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…309abacked Yes | 29c | 347.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…226cbacked Yes | 17c | 334$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 311.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…c27ebacked Yes | 4c | 309.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…8aaabacked Yes | 8c | 307.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…dbacbacked Yes | 17c | 294.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5084…e25dbacked Yes | 5c | 291.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10d…ea39backed Yes | 4c | 282.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f8…f27bbacked Yes | 7c | 279.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 8c | 278.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 271.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of March?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of March?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,500 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,100 by end of March?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,200 by end of March?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.