TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x28b0…94ca

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
49
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Movies, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 54 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+52.5%+$10.49
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+117%+$35.09
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+83%+$24.89
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Golden Knights vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Wild vs. Blackhawksbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Panthers vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$9.17
Utah vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Avalanche vs. Jetsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Red Wings vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
All 16 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Arizona Wildcats: O/U 166.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$19.83
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Kentucky Wildcats · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.94
Miami Hurricanes vs. Purdue Boilermakersbacked Purdue Boilermakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$10.98
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$19.9
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogsbacked Gonzaga Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.27
Wichita State Shockers vs. South Florida Bullsbacked South Florida Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.72
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.86
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacksbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.83
Virginia Cavaliers vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.98
Connecticut Huskies vs. St. John's Red Stormbacked St. John's Red Storm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$26.28
Penn Quakers vs. Harvard Crimsonbacked Harvard Crimson · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.83
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+122.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $76,000 March 9-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $5,000 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+44.6%+$8.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will China announce participation in Iran negotiations by May 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.