Stocks · resolved market
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x026a29316ad1b79132f253f88104345323fc9964638850bf75df7e5d304d3d93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 54c | 7,113$3,831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,282.27 | 1,112 | 43.7%486 W · 626 L | +25.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe3…5b92backed No | 62c | 3,415$2,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,131.75 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 29c | 3,128$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x770b…e274backed Yes | 74c | 725$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.12 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 40c | 701$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.4 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 30c | 662.25$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 10c | 630.76$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.71 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 10cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 60c | 610.47$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.35 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 38c | 598.95$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.58 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…a910backed Yes | 42c | 550.97$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 45c | 481.81$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.16 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0c…7fa3backed Yes | 31c | 389$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.86 | 188 | 53.2%100 W · 88 L | +18.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 27c | 385.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.27 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…783bbacked No | 53c | 376.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.6 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a2…838bbacked No | 56c | 344.79$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked No | 55c | 321.04$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 44c | 266.52$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.3 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed Yes | 49c | 198$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1d…a7dabacked No | 58c | 171.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed No | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…a9b2backed No | 69c | 145.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74e3…59cdbacked Yes | 78c | 128.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 49c | 126.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 101$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.4 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 99.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.43 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…b820backed No | 55c | 91.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ea…a566backed Yes | 37c | 89.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 74cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 49c | 52.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…5f34backed No | 21c | 51.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 24c | 50.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.63 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98fa…3528backed Yes | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 35c | 49.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 47.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 51c | 47.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…1f69backed No | 36c | 47.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aab…931dbacked No | 47c | 42.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee9…a6c1backed No | 33c | 42.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc40e…17afbacked Yes | 47c | 38.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…c6b6backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -3.0wins | -0.43per pick | 71cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x28b0…94cabacked Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…bcc6backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 44c | 31.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7eb…eb13backed Yes | 61c | 31.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…b459backed Yes | 42c | 25.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc27…b5d4backed No | 61c | 23.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March?this page
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $210 end of March?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $220 end of March?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of March?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March?Yes won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $270 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $280 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $300 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $310 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $320 end of March?No won
- Will Apple (AAPL) close above $330 end of March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.